What are megatrends?
When you see a news story about a new app sweeping the world, when the changing weather alters your insurance risk, or when you use your phone to do business in Southeast Asia – you are experiencing the impact of this century’s megatrends.
Megatrends are large, transformative processes with global reach, broad scope, and dramatic impact.
Companies, governments, and individuals use megatrends for long term planning, policy development, and even for making personal decisions.
The term megatrends was popularised by John Naisbitt, who in 1982 identified forces that were transitioning the world from an industrial society to an information society.
These are our six megatrends for the 21st Century:
- Impactful technology
- Accelerating individualisation
- Demographic change
- Rapid urbanisation
- Climate and resource security
- Economic power shift
Short-lived shocks like a pandemic or regional conflicts, while dramatic in nature, are not megatrends. Things like the metaverse, the gender pay gap, or even smart cities are not megatrends – although they may be part of a wider megatrend.
Nor are megatrends aspirational targets, like the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. However, understanding the six megatrends is necessary to achieve the SDGs.
Megatrends are the fundamental forces shaping our world.
Understanding them can also inform long term strategic thinking, helping us to make better decisions for the future, today.
As individuals, megatrends can also help us to make better personal choices about where to live, how to invest, or even what career to pursue.
The six megatrends of the 21st Century are already underway.
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Megatrends watch
The demographic change of the century
This century’s shifting population patterns are the fuel that will power significant economic change.
India’s population overtakes China
Two traditional societies must both confront the need to reformulate social norms as their populations change.
The emerging untruths of a global economy
The developing economic arrangements will not be a return to last century’s certainties.
Solar overtakes oil investment – at last
The shift in energy investment over the last eight years is a key signal that change is possible.
Algorithmic social media is an existential threat to democracy
Failure to push back against the current trajectory of social media platforms could be dire for democracy.
Getting old means never getting to retire
Demographic time-bombs and super ageing societies – what does it all mean for countries with falling birth rates?
Resource security for renewable energy? No worries!
Is it possible to power the world’s energy needs and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
The death of the smart city
The smart city has been the dazzling promise in urban planning for the last 20 years, but is the idea failing?
China’s baby bust will change the world
By the turn of the century 100 working-age Chinese will have to support as many as 120 elderly Chinese.
Africa is the 21st century’s promise and peril
Will the blooming of an overwhelmingly youthful society produce a dynamic catalyst for national exuberance and productivity?
The kids won’t be OK
Today’s children will be forced to endure the climate change consequences created during their parents’ lifetimes.
Big tech – how big is big enough?
How big can big tech be despite raking in some of their biggest ever annual revenue increases amidst the ongoing pandemic and market problems?
Is technology making it harder for individuals to act morally?
When social media companies employ opaque algorithms to capture and keep our attention, what power does the individual have to resist?
Facebook: a troll’s paradise
What does it mean when a social network’s algorithms favour anonymous groups bearing propaganda and misinformation?
COVID-19 driving deforestation in Asia and South America
Deforestation is having a significant impact on global biodiversity.
Declining fish poo changing ocean carbon balance
While commercial fishing rates have fallen, the decline in fish stocks over time is leading to unintended consequences.
Crowded skies
Satellites are already blocking out stars for astronomers, but will the crowded skies lead to more issues?
COVID-19 misinformation spread by just 12 people
What are the disadvantages of individual connectivity at scale?
Are temperatures rising in a nonlinear way?
Recent catastrophes could indicate the climate system has crossed a dangerous threshold.
Town closer to North Pole than equator hits 49.6ºC
What’s the verdict as unusual weather patterns become more common?
Archive
More than coral: the unseen casualties of record-breaking heat on the Great Barrier Reef
Bleached coral draws our attention, but marine heat does damage to many unseen parts of these ecosystems.
An optimistic nudge can turn an investor to the green side
Can optimistic framing drive the institutional investment shift needed to address climate change?
Board games at Disney, the fight of the figureheads
Disney's star-studded board faces activist investor pressure, but do the celebrity directors have the right expertise? What's the implication for other companies facing activist shareholders?
Fairness control for risky artificial intelligence decision making
Exploring the balance between AI decision-making and human ethics leads to a critical question: How can we ensure fairness in AI's life-altering decisions?
Are we there yet? Australia’s bumpy road to SDG 4, achieving quality education
With a robust education system, why does Australia falter on delivering equitable, quality learning for every student?
The ABC behind successful teamwork
With teamwork as the secret sauce for service excellence, is identifying and cultivating the right blend of teamwork mechanisms the special ingredient to transform customer satisfaction into profits?
Is Now and Then really a Beatles song? The fab four always used technology to create new music
The Beatles have released a new track - using new technology to strip Lennon’s vocals out of an old demo casette tape. Will this be part of Beatles canon?
AI chatbots are coming to your workplace but are not necessarily coming for your job
Chatbots are proving to be productive and useful but they can be unreliable and make mistakes.
Confronting ageing: the talk Australia has to have
Australian society will be reshaped as its population ages, it needs to have some confronting conversations about ageing and how it pays the inevitable cost.
Technology is changing the lives of female lawyers, in ways that are bad as well as good
A new survey finds working from home is removing barriers for women, but also blurring the barrier between work and the “safe space” of home.
Your car is watching you. The implications are profound and immediate
The issue of privacy breaches by car manufacturers is often overlooked.
Black learning matters – appreciating Indigenous wisdom in management education
How can educators respectfully and meaningfully introduce Indigenous stewardship concepts with a sense of appreciation rather than appropriation?
Harvest season is also peak time for conflict in rural societies
Do harvest season spikes in agricultural income and conflict in rural Africa and Asia present an opportunity to adjust peacekeeping and aid efforts?
VR is transforming how buildings are made
We no longer need to rely on the individual capability of people to read plans or imagine the spaces based on the pictures or verbal descriptions.
Buy Now Pay Later – what are the pitfalls?
Around a quarter of Australian adults have used a Buy Now, Pay Later service. What does the industry's increasing influence mean for younger and at-risk consumers?
Taking no for an answer: how governments can keep citizens engaged on digital platforms
How should "citizen-sourcing" initiatives be designed, to enable positive interactions and transparency?
Australian consumers support better protections for gig workers
What is the quality, rather than the quantity, of the jobs that we wish to tolerate as a society?
Online scams are about to get more sophisticated than Nigerian princes
ChatGPT’s “evil cousin” WormGPT will allow bad actors to more accurately mimic the real deal in attempts to swindle and deceive people.
Food security starts with food sovereignty
The UN's Zero Hunger goal faces challenges in West Papua, where palm oil plantations are erasing Indigenous foodways - could a food sovereignty framework help balance development, culture, and sustainability?
The demographic change of the century
This century’s shifting population patterns are the fuel that will power significant economic change.
Looking for employees with high productivity and low turnover? Hire a refugee.
Research shows refugees make motivated, loyal employees with lower turnover, but are employers overlooking this untapped talent due to assumptions and perceived barriers?
Creative AI: The death of the author?
Nick Cave says that AI-produced songs lack authenticity. With algorithms churning out news and scripts, will human creatives become obsolete?
There is a SMART solution to worker burnout
The psychological toll on healthcare and social assistance workers is immense - what if we could reimagine these jobs to prevent burnout?
Dial AI for assistance: leveraging AI for supply chain resilience and crisis management
How can businesses better weather unforeseen challenges and thrive in an ever-changing marketplace?
Making room for the rivers
When deciding if they should live with or fight the floods, Australia and many other countries can learn from the Netherlands.
The rise of the value destroyers – activist short sellers
Do activist short sellers actively destroy the value of firm investments, in addition to their role in ‘correcting mispricing / overvaluation’?
Running out of water on the blue planet
How do governments close the water management gap and improve universal access to water?
India’s population overtakes China
Two traditional societies must both confront the need to reformulate social norms as their populations change.
What this year’s El Niño means for wheat and global food supply
The new El Niño is unlikely to significantly increase global food prices, but some parts of the world will feel the pain.
Black mirror lawyering
Recent developments in AI have alerted lawyers that the environment in which they compete is changing.
The emerging untruths of a global economy
The developing economic arrangements will not be a return to last century’s certainties.
Replacing news editors with AI is a worry for misinformation, bias and accountability
Unlike a human editor, AI cannot explain their decisions or reasoning in a meaningful way. This can be a problem in a field where accountability and transparency are important.
Can marketing be a force for good in the world?
Without marketing, businesses engaging in strategies relating to the UN Sustainable Development Goals are unlikely to achieve their strategic goals.
Solar overtakes oil investment – at last
The shift in energy investment over the last eight years is a key signal that change is possible.
Low-code apps: not just for the IT crowd
The pandemic may have turbo-charged low-code awareness, but how will the market grow in the coming years?
Zoom fatigue: a laborious act, in two parts
Even a few video calls can leave us exhausted, so how do you weigh the potential return on investment of each virtual meeting?
Global cities as future drivers of international business activities
Cities contribute more than 80% of global GDP, but how can they attract innovative and sustainable businesses?
Students know AI is here to stay and want unis to teach them how to use it
Students understand there are limitations with ChatGPT, but they know it will have a huge impact on their careers.
The future of generative AI
This week: the speed, visibility and hype of generative AI, and goodbye.
Is 13 too young to have a TikTok or Instagram account?
The US surgeon general says 13 is ‘too early’ to be on social media. But an expert on parenting and digital media cautions against a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach.
The future of seafood with Aryé Elfenbein
This week: we discuss lab-grown seafood and the future of fish with Wildtype Co-Founder, Aryé Elfenbein.
Leading women into digital careers – programming not required
For International Girls in ICT Day, we reflect on a recent Women Leading in Digital event.
Mental health plays a big role in advancing the economy – we need a measure beyond GDP
Mental health plays a significant role in productivity but is often overlooked. To maintain its promising economic growth, Indonesia must put its people’s well-being into the calculation.
How to perfect your prompt writing for ChatGPT, Midjourney and other AI generators
Users are having a blast getting creative with AI generators – but your output is only ever as good as your prompt.
Generative AI and life advice for the future with Kevin Kelly
This week: we talk with Wired Magazine co-founder Kevin Kelly about artificial intelligence, group think, and excellent advice for living.
ChatGPT is a data privacy nightmare. If you’ve ever posted online, you ought to be concerned
ChatGPT is fuelled by our intimate online histories, yet users have no way of knowing which of their data it contains.
Algorithmic social media is an existential threat to democracy
Failure to push back against the current trajectory of social media platforms could be dire for democracy.
Platform capitalism with Cory Doctorow and Rebecca Giblin
This week: we interview Rebecca Giblin and Cory Doctorow, authors of Chokepoint Capitalism, about how platforms capture value in creative markets.
Getting old means never getting to retire
Demographic time-bombs and super ageing societies - what does it all mean for countries with falling birth rates?
What the DAC? Can Direct Air Capture help save the planet from global warming?
Once the ‘ugly duckling’ of decarbonisation, direct air capture is finally winning friends and influence.
AI might be seemingly everywhere, but there are still plenty of things it can’t do – for now
From ChatGPT to Lensa, it feels like AI is here to take over. But despite some impressive results, such systems still have plenty of limitations.
Resource security for renewable energy? No worries!
Is it possible to power the world’s energy needs and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
What maths can teach us about privacy
How can we future-proof privacy so that in years hence it is not violated when dissected by more powerful computers?
Noise and other distractions with Daniel Kahneman
This week: a special episode with Nobel Prize winner and renowned author, Professor Daniel Kahneman.
The business of staying alive
What does online shopping have in common with surviving a heart attack?
A business strategy: what would Kim Kardashian do?
Companies with an eye to winning new customers need to harness the business power of social media.
The death of the smart city
The smart city has been the dazzling promise in urban planning for the last 20 years, but is the idea failing?
Hybrid work: the 9 things we have learnt
After the pandemic-induced experimentation with new forms of work – here is a checklist of nine things we have learnt about hybrid working (and what is, and isn’t, working).
ChatGPT and generative AI
This week: Our ChatGPT and generative AI special. What is it? How does it work? What to do with it? Where to next?
The ChatGPT chatbot is blowing people away with its writing skills. An expert explains why it’s so impressive
The newest OpenAI text-generator is a marked improvement over its predecessor – but it still has its pitfalls.
Why you should never retire: unlearn retirement
We discuss why collecting that gold watch and retiring at 65 might not be the best thing and why it’s time to change the retirement narrative.
The 4-day work week with Juliet Schor
This week: what if we all worked four days a week? We talk with Professor Juliet Schor about her research into the 4-day work week and the trials happening around the world.
Not just retail and restaurants: Australia’s new high tech Asian entrepreneurs
Who are this new generation of Asian Australian entrepreneurs and what makes them successful?
Welcome to Sydney 2036, how is the 3 part city working?
What does life look like for a 36 year-old Sydney resident in 2036?
China’s baby bust will change the world
By the turn of the century 100 working-age Chinese will have to support as many as 120 elderly Chinese.
Keeping it local – the new supply chain vibe
Resilience has become a saviour term but businesses can move beyond just mitigating supply chain risk.
Best business books of 2022
This week: corporate self-help, pandemics, climate, toxic stuff and socio-tech broccoli: our 2022 best business books for your holiday reading list.
Only 15% of AI investments succeed. An AI translator could help the other 85%
Investments in AI technologies are accelerating worldwide, what could an AI translator do to improve the success of AI-led projects?
Temu – Chinese apps going global
This week: Pinduoduo’s Temu marks another high-profile entry in the e-commerce market from a Chinese tech giant.
COP27 and moving forward with climate change responses
This week: we talk to Christopher Wright about COP27 and how to move forward with responses to climate change.
Coal, oil and gas and their inflationary problem
The clean energy transition is inevitable one way or another, but will greenflation be an issue along the way?
A technologically advanced society is choosing to destroy itself. It’s both fascinating and horrifying to watch
Why does civil society accept a system that condemns today’s children life on a hostile planet? And what can we do about it?
Generative AI and creative work
This week: how generative Artificial Intelligence and synthetic media changes the business of creative work.
Branding, it’s a feeling
Is emotional connection important for tech brands?
Trading around divorce
Divorce, for most, is an uncomfortable, life-altering experience. What is the impact of divorce on individual stock market trading decisions?
Universal Basic Income with Scott Santens
This week: Universal Basic Income (UBI) trials have taken place all over the world from Namibia to Alaska. We talk with researcher and advocate Scott Santens about the future of the basic income.
After the Optus data breach, Australia needs mandatory disclosure laws
Optus made a public announcement about its breach but was not legally required to do so. This needs to change.
The looming AI arms race in hiring
As organisations embrace AI hiring systems, how will they be gamed?
Patagonia goes profit for purpose
This week: we discuss what happens when a company is owned by a foundation, how profit benefits purpose.
Art and the AI machine
Does AI-generated art deserve a place in the history of our art and times?
The footprint of food miles – we need to start counting
What is the carbon footprint of the foods you consume each day?
The narrow road to the deeper connection
Incremental additions to practical medical knowledge can be lifesaving, but how can that be achieved in remote parts of the world?
From silence to celebration – shifting experiences for LGBTIQ+ in the workplace
Momentum towards effective diversity must be maintained while there is continuing aggression against LGBTIQ+ populations around the world.
Data is not the new oil with Genevieve Bell
This week: our 300th episode. We’re joined by Professor Genevieve Bell to settle once and for all – if data is not the new oil, then what is it?
Turning greenhouse gas into clean fuel
In the quest to tackle excessive greenhouse gas output, is there a fuel where the only by-product can be used as food for farm animals?
State of the Digital in 2022 (and the future) with Simon Kemp
This week: don’t believe the hype – the surprising truth about what is really going on online.
Is using AI to create art cheating?
Artificial Intelligence has worked its way into our vernacular, but what if AI is used to create art? Is it then really art?
Weird new jobs
This week: the AI whisperer, AI artist managers, data detectives, metaverse supply chain strategy consultants, and more cool jobs in the digital era.
How to prevent success from breeding failure
What if innovation leads to corporate disaster?
The business of movies is changing with Mike Seymour
This week: the business of movies is changing, with Mike Seymour.
Instagram, are you TikTok?
This week: as Instagram tries to become more like TikTok, small businesses protest.
For the sake of the planet we need to rethink human-centred design
Consumer expectations are changing due to a growing awareness of our impact on the planet. What does life-centred design offer organisations?
If we only think in the present, how can we imagine our future?
We need a coherent, concrete vision of the future to spur innovation and productivity.
AI fluency in Australia with Kellie Nuttall
This week: a special on artificial intelligence in Australian organisations and AI fluency with Deloitte’s AI Lead, Dr Kellie Nuttall.
China’s big tech problem: even in a state-managed economy, digital companies grow too powerful
Like the EU and unlike the US, China is trying to rein in the power of big tech companies. Can we learn from these efforts?
This is Australia’s most important report on the environment’s deteriorating health
Three chief authors of the State of the Environment Report provide its key findings. While it’s a sobering read, there are a few bright spots.