What are megatrends and how are they shaping the future of business?
What are the fundamental forces that are changing our world?
Identifying these trends and understanding their impact is key to knowing how businesses and communities operate today and into the future.
These are Megatrends, a term coined by John Naisbitt in the 1980s: large, transformative processes with global reach, broad scope, and dramatic impact.
The University of Sydney Business School has identified six megatrends that are shaping the world in the first half of the 21st century: impactful technology, demographic change, rapid urbanisation, amplified individuals, economic power shift, climate and resource security.
These forces help us think about the future for better-informed decisions in the present.
Each megatrend is explored in a short video explainer that we trust will start important conversations and provoke responses across business, government and community.
Biswas, R. (2018). Emerging Markets Megatrends. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Biswas, R. (2016). Asian Megatrends. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
Day, J., & Hall, C. (2016). America’s Most Sustainable Cities and Regions : Surviving the 21st Century Megatrends (1st ed. 2016.). New York, NY: Springer New York.
Diong, T. (2017). The Future of Management Systems. Quality, 56(9), 52–54. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/2093177503/
Esposito, M.; Tse, Te. Drive. (2018). The Five Megatrends that Underpin the Future Business, Social, and Economic Landscapes. Thunderbird International Business Review. Jan/Feb2018, Vol. 60 Issue 1, p121-129. 1p. DOI: 10.1002/tie.21889. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/tie.21889
Kaivo-Oja Jari, & Lauraeus, T. (2019). Analysis of 2017 Gartner’s three megatrends to thrive the disruptive business, technology trends 2008-2016, dynamic capabilities of VUCA and foresight leadership tools. Advances in Technology Innovation, 4(2), 105-115. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.library.usyd.edu.au/login?url=https://search.proquest.com/docview/2203253742?accountid=14757
Kojm, C. (2016). Global Change and Megatrends: Implications for Intelligence and Its Oversight. In Global Intelligence Oversight.https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190458072.003.0005
Naisbitt, J. (1982) Megatrends: Ten new directions transforming our lives. New York: Grand Central Publishing.
Naisbitt, D., & Naisbitt, J. (2018). Mastering megatrends : understanding & leveraging the evolving new world (Asian edition.). Singapore: World Scientific.
Peciak, R. (2016). Megatrends and their Implications in the Globalised World. Horyzonty Polityki, 7(21), 167–184. https://doi.org/10.17399/HP.2016.072106
Slaughter, R. A. (2013). Time to Get Real: A Critique of Global Trends 2030—Alternative Worlds. World Futures Review, 5(4), 354–359. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756713510280
Uther, Beverley. Managing Megatrends [online]. Company Director, Vol. 33, No. 10, Nov 2017: 40-43. Availability: https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=090338349476340;res=IELAPA
Watson, R., & Freeman, O. (2013). Re-visioning the NIC 2030 Scenarios. World Futures Review, 5(4), 372–376. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756713506365
Megatrends watch
Getting old means never getting to retire
Demographic time-bombs and super ageing societies – what does it all mean for countries with falling birth rates?
Resource security for renewable energy? No worries!
Is it possible to power the world’s energy needs and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
The death of the smart city
The smart city has been the dazzling promise in urban planning for the last 20 years, but is the idea failing?
China’s baby bust will change the world
By the turn of the century 100 working-age Chinese will have to support as many as 120 elderly Chinese.
Africa is the 21st century’s promise and peril
Will the blooming of an overwhelmingly youthful society produce a dynamic catalyst for national exuberance and productivity?
The kids won’t be OK
Today’s children will be forced to endure the climate change consequences created during their parents’ lifetimes.
Big tech – how big is big enough?
How big can big tech be despite raking in some of their biggest ever annual revenue increases amidst the ongoing pandemic and market problems?
Is technology making it harder for individuals to act morally?
When social media companies employ opaque algorithms to capture and keep our attention, what power does the individual have to resist?
Facebook: a troll’s paradise
What does it mean when a social network’s algorithms favour anonymous groups bearing propaganda and misinformation?
COVID-19 driving deforestation in Asia and South America
Deforestation is having a significant impact on global biodiversity.
Declining fish poo changing ocean carbon balance
While commercial fishing rates have fallen, the decline in fish stocks over time is leading to unintended consequences.
Crowded skies
Satellites are already blocking out stars for astronomers, but will the crowded skies lead to more issues?
COVID-19 misinformation spread by just 12 people
What are the disadvantages of individual connectivity at scale?
Are temperatures rising in a nonlinear way?
Recent catastrophes could indicate the climate system has crossed a dangerous threshold.
Town closer to North Pole than equator hits 49.6ºC
What’s the verdict as unusual weather patterns become more common?
Cities are on the frontline of climate change – prepare or perish
More than 800 million people could be affected by coastal flooding, how are cities adapting?
Chinese companies win clean sweep of smart city awards
The Chinese Government declared it wants to be the world leader in AI, how has that impacted the AI City Challenge?
A tale of two megacities
Cities with affluent residents – and corresponding high consumption lifestyles, account for the largest carbon footprints.
And baby makes three… China lifts child limit
China’s latest census shows its birth rate has continued to fall and is bringing in new policies.
A shrinking middle class, rising global poor
The pandemic has pushed millions out of the global middle class and increased the number of poor.
Archive
Platform capitalism with Cory Doctorow and Rebecca Giblin
This week: we interview Rebecca Giblin and Cory Doctorow, authors of Chokepoint Capitalism, about how platforms capture value in creative markets.
Getting old means never getting to retire
Demographic time-bombs and super ageing societies - what does it all mean for countries with falling birth rates?
What the DAC? Can Direct Air Capture help save the planet from global warming?
Once the ‘ugly duckling’ of decarbonisation, direct air capture is finally winning friends and influence.
AI might be seemingly everywhere, but there are still plenty of things it can’t do – for now
From ChatGPT to Lensa, it feels like AI is here to take over. But despite some impressive results, such systems still have plenty of limitations.
Resource security for renewable energy? No worries!
Is it possible to power the world’s energy needs and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
What maths can teach us about privacy
How can we future-proof privacy so that in years hence it is not violated when dissected by more powerful computers?
Noise and other distractions with Daniel Kahneman
This week: a special episode with Nobel Prize winner and renowned author, Professor Daniel Kahneman.
The business of staying alive
What does online shopping have in common with surviving a heart attack?