What are megatrends?
When you see a news story about a new app sweeping the world, when the changing weather alters your insurance risk, or when you use your phone to do business in Southeast Asia – you are experiencing the impact of this century’s megatrends.
Megatrends are large, transformative processes with global reach, broad scope, and dramatic impact.
Companies, governments, and individuals use megatrends for long term planning, policy development, and even for making personal decisions.
The term megatrends was popularised by John Naisbitt, who in 1982 identified forces that were transitioning the world from an industrial society to an information society.
These are our six megatrends for the 21st Century:
- Impactful technology
- Accelerating individualisation
- Demographic change
- Rapid urbanisation
- Climate and resource security
- Economic power shift
Short-lived shocks like a pandemic or regional conflicts, while dramatic in nature, are not megatrends. Things like the metaverse, the gender pay gap, or even smart cities are not megatrends – although they may be part of a wider megatrend.
Nor are megatrends aspirational targets, like the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. However, understanding the six megatrends is necessary to achieve the SDGs.
Megatrends are the fundamental forces shaping our world.
Understanding them can also inform long term strategic thinking, helping us to make better decisions for the future, today.
As individuals, megatrends can also help us to make better personal choices about where to live, how to invest, or even what career to pursue.
The six megatrends of the 21st Century are already underway.
Megatrends watch
The demographic change of the century
This century’s shifting population patterns are the fuel that will power significant economic change.
India’s population overtakes China
Two traditional societies must both confront the need to reformulate social norms as their populations change.
The emerging untruths of a global economy
The developing economic arrangements will not be a return to last century’s certainties.
Solar overtakes oil investment – at last
The shift in energy investment over the last eight years is a key signal that change is possible.
Algorithmic social media is an existential threat to democracy
Failure to push back against the current trajectory of social media platforms could be dire for democracy.
Getting old means never getting to retire
Demographic time-bombs and super ageing societies – what does it all mean for countries with falling birth rates?
Resource security for renewable energy? No worries!
Is it possible to power the world’s energy needs and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
The death of the smart city
The smart city has been the dazzling promise in urban planning for the last 20 years, but is the idea failing?
China’s baby bust will change the world
By the turn of the century 100 working-age Chinese will have to support as many as 120 elderly Chinese.
Africa is the 21st century’s promise and peril
Will the blooming of an overwhelmingly youthful society produce a dynamic catalyst for national exuberance and productivity?
The kids won’t be OK
Today’s children will be forced to endure the climate change consequences created during their parents’ lifetimes.
Big tech – how big is big enough?
How big can big tech be despite raking in some of their biggest ever annual revenue increases amidst the ongoing pandemic and market problems?
Is technology making it harder for individuals to act morally?
When social media companies employ opaque algorithms to capture and keep our attention, what power does the individual have to resist?
Facebook: a troll’s paradise
What does it mean when a social network’s algorithms favour anonymous groups bearing propaganda and misinformation?
COVID-19 driving deforestation in Asia and South America
Deforestation is having a significant impact on global biodiversity.
Declining fish poo changing ocean carbon balance
While commercial fishing rates have fallen, the decline in fish stocks over time is leading to unintended consequences.
Crowded skies
Satellites are already blocking out stars for astronomers, but will the crowded skies lead to more issues?
COVID-19 misinformation spread by just 12 people
What are the disadvantages of individual connectivity at scale?
Are temperatures rising in a nonlinear way?
Recent catastrophes could indicate the climate system has crossed a dangerous threshold.
Town closer to North Pole than equator hits 49.6ºC
What’s the verdict as unusual weather patterns become more common?
Archive
Harvest season is also peak time for conflict in rural societies
Do harvest season spikes in agricultural income and conflict in rural Africa and Asia present an opportunity to adjust peacekeeping and aid efforts?
VR is transforming how buildings are made
We no longer need to rely on the individual capability of people to read plans or imagine the spaces based on the pictures or verbal descriptions.
Buy Now Pay Later – what are the pitfalls?
Around a quarter of Australian adults have used a Buy Now, Pay Later service. What does the industry's increasing influence mean for younger and at-risk consumers?
Taking no for an answer: how governments can keep citizens engaged on digital platforms
How should "citizen-sourcing" initiatives be designed, to enable positive interactions and transparency?
Australian consumers support better protections for gig workers
What is the quality, rather than the quantity, of the jobs that we wish to tolerate as a society?
Online scams are about to get more sophisticated than Nigerian princes
ChatGPT’s “evil cousin” WormGPT will allow bad actors to more accurately mimic the real deal in attempts to swindle and deceive people.
Food security starts with food sovereignty
The UN's Zero Hunger goal faces challenges in West Papua, where palm oil plantations are erasing Indigenous foodways - could a food sovereignty framework help balance development, culture, and sustainability?
The demographic change of the century
This century’s shifting population patterns are the fuel that will power significant economic change.