Rapid urbanisation

Megatrends

Available in 中文 (Chinese)

The future is one of cities. Today more than half the world’s population live in cities, generating 85% of global GDP.

Globally we are on track for 60% urbanisation by 2030: In the developed world consolidation will be even more intense with an estimated 81% of the population living in cities. The majority of this will happen in Africa and Asia.

Whilst urbanisation creates huge opportunities for smart, eco-cities, there are also significant challenges that come with different types of urbanisation including tremendous demands on infrastructure and the environment, provision of services and job creation. Cities consume three quarters of the world’s natural resources.

New York, Beijing, Shanghai and London will need $8 trillion in infrastructure investments alone over the next decade. By 2030, solid waste management will dominate municipal budgets in low and middle income countries.

This megatrend has built-in tension due to demographic change. Many cities are set to grow with 1.5 million people a week joining cities across the world through a combination of migration and childbirth. However, around 100 of the top cities are expected to shrink over the next 10 years, in part due to aging populations in countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and China. New centres of growth are emerging in Asia and in Africa. So how do we plan, build and lead better cities?

Healthy cities are about everything we do in our urban lives: our work and our communities, our natural and built environment, the social, digital and financial layers around them. Cities are undergoing profound changes, from new practices in construction and utilities, to transport and logistics, from how we do healthcare to how we share our cities. They are as much about smart technologies and financial flows, as they are about the art that flourishes and outlasts laws. The focus of future cities is ultimately on increasing opportunity and improving the quality of life for the people living in them.

Rapid urbanisation infographic

References

Hayat, P., (2016). Smart Cities: A Global Perspective. (online) Sage Publishing. Available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0974928416637930#

Poulden, G., (2013). City-Level Decoupling: Urban Resource Flows and the Governance of Infrastructure Transitions (online) European Union. Available at: https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/unep/document/city-level-decoupling-urban-resource-flows-and-governance-infrastructure-transitions

United Nations, (2018). 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. (online) The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. Available at: https://population.un.org/wup/

United Nations, (2018). 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. (online) File 14: Average Annual Rate of Change Agglomerations with 3000,000 inhabitants or more. The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. Available at: https://population.un.org/wup/

United Nations, (2018). 100 largest cities 2020. (online) The UN Population Division’s 2018 World Urbanisation Prospects. Available at: https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/01/100-largest-cities-2020-millions.xls

United Nations, (2018). 100 largest cities 2020. (online) The UN Population Division’s 2018 World Urbanisation Prospects. Available at: https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/01/100-largest-cities-2020-millions.xls

UN News, (2013). Sustainable urban infrastructure can foster economic growth – UN Report. (online) UN Environment Program. Available at: https://news.un.org/en/story/2013/04/437432-sustainable-urban-infrastructure-can-foster-economic-growth-un-report

UN, (2013). Chapter III: Towards sustainable cities. World Economic and Social Survey 2013: Sustainable Development Challenges. (online) UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/wess2013/Chapter3.pdf

PwC, (2015). A New Urban Agenda: Accommodating 2 billion new urban citizens. Rapid Urbanisation (UK). Available at: https://www.pwc.co.uk/issues/megatrends/rapid-urbanisation.html

United Nations, (2019). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision. (New York): Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations. Available at: https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Report.pdf

UN, (2013). Planning and Design for Sustainable Urban Mobility – Global Report on Human Settlements 2013. UN Habitat’s Global Reports on Human Settlements. Available at: https://mirror.unhabitat.org/categories.asp?catid=555

The World Bank, (2019). Solid Waste Management. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/brief/solid-waste-management

What are megatrends and how they are shaping the future of business?

Impactful Technology
Demographic change
Rapid urbanisation
Amplified individuals
Economic power shift
Climate and resource security

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