气候资源的安全
常规模式带来了一个更富裕的世界和一个退化的地球。
气候与资源安全大趋势反映了气候变化的轨迹及其对自然资源带来的压力。
除非国际社会共同努力，2030年前将温室气体排放量至少减少50%，否则到下一个十年中期，全球平均气温将比工业化前上升1.5摄氏度以上。
即使按照这样的速度，一些群体和生态系统也将无法生存。
超过30亿人生活在极易受到极端天气事件影响的地区。
即使气温上升1.5摄氏度，世界上近四分之一的人口也将面临洪水，近10亿人将面临水危机和高温压力。
目前，世界上大约一半的人口至少在全年部分时间里经历着严重的水资源短缺。如果这个趋势继续下去，到2040年，33个国家将面临严重的水资源短缺。
为了养活全球人口，到2050年，粮食产量需要提高60%。然而，由于气候变化，全球农作物产量将下降7%。
海产品是30多亿人的主要蛋白质来源。然而，到本世纪末，海洋变暖和过度捕捞将使世界鱼类资源减少64%。
避免这一大趋势将需要适应和减缓战略。
基于生态系统的适应（或绿色基础设施）利用自然解决方案来保护和恢复陆地和海洋，从而保障粮食安全，为当地带来经济效益，并促进碳封存。
例子包括种植红树林作为一种防洪形式，以及“绿色长城”项目，在该项目中，21个非洲国家正在种植一个与非洲大陆宽度相当的巨大树木带，以对抗撒哈拉沙漠的蔓延。
到2021年，全球约12%的一次能源来自可再生能源。为了到2050年实现净零排放，超过三分之二的能源消耗将需要来自可再生能源。
世界迫切需要更积极的脱碳战略。实施有效的计划将需要更强有力的国际合作。 一如既往的常规模式已不再是可行的模式。
Plumer, B. (2023). ‘Climate Change Is Speeding Toward Catastrophe. The Next Decade Is Crucial, U.N. Panel Says.’, New York Times 20/3/23. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/20/climate/global-warming-ipcc-earth.html
Slezak, M. (2023). ‘IPCC climate scientists issue ‘a survival guide for humanity’, warning window closing to reduce emissions’, ABC News 21/3/23. Available at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-21/ipcc-report-how-to-keep-global-warming-below-1-5-degrees/102112836
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Rentschler, J., Salhab, M., Jafino, B.A. (2022). ‘Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries,’ Nature Communications 13. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30727-4
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2023). Climate Change 2023 – Synthesis Report. Available at: https://report.ipcc.ch/
Da Silva, J.G. (2012). ‘Feeding the World Sustainably’, UN Chronicle. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/feeding-world-sustainably
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改变世界的根本力量是什么?
Archive
More than coral: the unseen casualties of record-breaking heat on the Great Barrier Reef
Bleached coral draws our attention, but marine heat does damage to many unseen parts of these ecosystems.
An optimistic nudge can turn an investor to the green side
Can optimistic framing drive the institutional investment shift needed to address climate change?
Harvest season is also peak time for conflict in rural societies
Do harvest season spikes in agricultural income and conflict in rural Africa and Asia present an opportunity to adjust peacekeeping and aid efforts?
Food security starts with food sovereignty
The UN's Zero Hunger goal faces challenges in West Papua, where palm oil plantations are erasing Indigenous foodways - could a food sovereignty framework help balance development, culture, and sustainability?
Making room for the rivers
When deciding if they should live with or fight the floods, Australia and many other countries can learn from the Netherlands.
Running out of water on the blue planet
How do governments close the water management gap and improve universal access to water?
What this year’s El Niño means for wheat and global food supply
The new El Niño is unlikely to significantly increase global food prices, but some parts of the world will feel the pain.
Can marketing be a force for good in the world?
Without marketing, businesses engaging in strategies relating to the UN Sustainable Development Goals are unlikely to achieve their strategic goals.
Solar overtakes oil investment – at last
The shift in energy investment over the last eight years is a key signal that change is possible.
The future of seafood with Aryé Elfenbein
This week: we discuss lab-grown seafood and the future of fish with Wildtype Co-Founder, Aryé Elfenbein.
What the DAC? Can Direct Air Capture help save the planet from global warming?
Once the ‘ugly duckling’ of decarbonisation, direct air capture is finally winning friends and influence.
Resource security for renewable energy? No worries!
Is it possible to power the world’s energy needs and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
Best business books of 2022
This week: corporate self-help, pandemics, climate, toxic stuff and socio-tech broccoli: our 2022 best business books for your holiday reading list.
COP27 and moving forward with climate change responses
This week: we talk to Christopher Wright about COP27 and how to move forward with responses to climate change.
Coal, oil and gas and their inflationary problem
The clean energy transition is inevitable one way or another, but will greenflation be an issue along the way?
A technologically advanced society is choosing to destroy itself. It’s both fascinating and horrifying to watch
Why does civil society accept a system that condemns today’s children life on a hostile planet? And what can we do about it?
Patagonia goes profit for purpose
This week: we discuss what happens when a company is owned by a foundation, how profit benefits purpose.
The footprint of food miles – we need to start counting
What is the carbon footprint of the foods you consume each day?
Turning greenhouse gas into clean fuel
In the quest to tackle excessive greenhouse gas output, is there a fuel where the only by-product can be used as food for farm animals?
This is Australia’s most important report on the environment’s deteriorating health
Three chief authors of the State of the Environment Report provide its key findings. While it’s a sobering read, there are a few bright spots.
Another delivery drone trial and food security futures
This week: delivery drones - where are they, and why are they taking so long? Plus fake milk discussions and food security futures.
The kids won’t be OK
Today’s children will be forced to endure the climate change consequences created during their parents’ lifetimes.
What in the world happens if we run out of sand?
The UN says current sand extraction is leading to a global crisis, so what can be done to protect this vital resource?
It’s a material world but how much can we take? New tool reveals hidden carbon hotspots
Imagine having the whole world’s physical consumption at your fingertips.
The future of sand
This week: the world is running out of sand. The most-exploited resource after water should be recognised as a strategic material and regulated like a mineral commodity
Neon supply lines. A rare story.
How the war in Ukraine will impact supplies of everyday electronic goods including cars, iPhones and computers.
Neon and chip shortages
This week: the world’s leading suppliers of neon are in Ukraine, and that threatens to make the ongoing microchip shortage even worse.
Can ESG integration make investment responsible?
Study examines whether the integration of environmental, social, and governance ratings makes investment responsible.
COVID-19 driving deforestation in Asia and South America
Deforestation is having a significant impact on global biodiversity.
Best business books of 2021 on The Future, This Week
This week: corporate self-help, schadenfreude, tech broccoli, and real eyeopeners: our 2021 best business books for your Christmas list.
Cobalt, not exactly the new oil on The Future, This Week
This week: all about cobalt, a behind the scenes look at the challenges of transitioning to renewable energy technologies.
The North-South divide in smart city development
Smart cities continue to spread, but how is the North-South divide impacting development in the Global South?
Declining fish poo changing ocean carbon balance
While commercial fishing rates have fallen, the decline in fish stocks over time is leading to unintended consequences.
Climate change – what’s in a number?
In the challenging environment of climate change information, the dilemma is which not-so-beautiful set of numbers to pay attention to.
The numbers of climate change and COP26 on The Future, This Week
This week: all the numbers of climate change and what they mean from the COP26 in Glasgow, with our expert Professor Christopher Wright.
Are temperatures rising in a nonlinear way?
Recent catastrophes could indicate the climate system has crossed a dangerous threshold.
Town closer to North Pole than equator hits 49.6ºC
What's the verdict as unusual weather patterns become more common?
Cities are on the frontline of climate change – prepare or perish
More than 800 million people could be affected by coastal flooding, how are cities adapting?
The impending apocalypse happening in plain sight: a response to the latest IPCC report
Is the roadmap to net zero emissions afflicted by the politics of predatory delay?
More than nudges are needed to save the world from climate change
What is needed to avert climate change? Professor Richard H. Thaler says nudges aren't the only solution.
Human progress is no excuse to destroy nature. A push to make ‘ecocide’ a global crime must recognise this fundamental truth
The push for a new environmental crime has attracted high-profile backers including Emmanuel Macron, Pope Francis and Greta Thunberg. But we must get the details right.
Happiness plus a smart energy policy – why should the Nordics have all the fun?
The world is waiting for Australia and other countries to deliver credible climate targets.
Who’s afraid of GM crops?
While bans on GM crops are being lifted across mainland Australia, consumer hesitancy lingers.
A tale of two megacities
Cities with affluent residents – and corresponding high consumption lifestyles, account for the largest carbon footprints.
Every mainland Australian state now allows genetically modified crops. Here’s why that’s nothing to fear
GM proponents say the technology leads to better crop yields and may solve food shortages and reduce pests. Opponents say GM is a threat to the environment and humans. So where does the truth lie?
Cramming cities full of electric vehicles means we’re still depending on cars — and that’s a huge problem
Electric vehicles deserve government subsidies, but there are even better ways to build greener, less car-dependent cities.
Degrowth – the promising climate change strategy no politician wants to handle?
Should we focus on deep social change rather than technological solutions to climate change?
The business of bees on The Future, This Week
This week: bees, their economic impact and why it's so important to protect them, with special guest Emily Remnant.
What carbon neutrality means for the future of coal in China
China’s motivation and ability to shift energy usage away from coal should not be underestimated.
Business in the dark as it heads into a climate changed future
Business needs to account for how climate change will impact its bottom line.
Coronavirus will change the world permanently. Here’s how.
A crisis on this scale can reorder society in dramatic ways, for better or worse. Here are 34 big thinkers' predictions for what's to come.
The oil industry on Corona Business Insights
How the slump in oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic presents a stress test for the oil industry in a low-carbon future.
Climate and the environment on Corona Business Insights
What coronavirus means for climate and the environment.
The conversations hidden by coronavirus: space, tech and climate on The Future, This Week
This week: the conversations gone missing during COVID-19: space, tech and climate.
We can feed the world with plant protein
There are plenty of barriers, but if we really want to we can feed the world on plant protein (largely from legumes).
The Future, This Week 10 May 19: #biodiversity, swearing robot
This week: a million species disappear: what that means, what we can do, and a swearing robot.
The Future, This Week 3 May 19: #OldTownRoad and #Microbiome disruption
This week: wonderful country-trap, weird bacteria innovation, and Elon’s leaf-blower.
The Future, This Week 21 Dec 2018: coffee, chickens, and fake food
This week: a food Christmas special with coffee, chickens and a fake food future.
The future of food
In 2018 we looked at the future of food from the soil it will grow in to the spectre of a global shortage in just 10 years. So much food for thought.
In 100 years’ time, maybe our food won’t be grown in soil
With a growing global population, perhaps it is time to start looking for alternatives.
The Future, This Week 12 Oct 18: Nobel, Facebook, and cost per ‘gram
This week: Nobel interventions, now I see you, and cost per 'gram.
How Brazil can beat the odds
Brazil has set itself a target of restoring almost 50,000 sq km of the Amazon rainforest by 2030. But it won't get there without changing its policies and how it engages with local people.
The Future, This Week 17 Aug 18: productivity, food crisis, and changing stories
This week: Googling productivity, placing weight on calories, and changing stories.
The Future, This Week 15 June 2018
This week: winter is coming, Uber knows you're tipsy, and take the call.
The Future, This Week 01 June 2018
This week: putting solar on the map, batteries have a dirty secret, and buses.
The Future, This Week 04 May 2018
This week: chickens of tomorrow, prison business, and the rise of the digital humans.
The Future, This Week 13 April 2018
This week: big ships, rockets vs. cars, fake videos, Zuck's cushion, and climate change in other news.
Facing the fake food future
Welcome to the future where this week we learned that milk does not need to come from cows.
The Future, This Week 06 April 2018
This week: unpacking inequality, why shooting for the moon is hard, and cars demanding attention in other news.
On dangerous ground: land degradation is turning soils into deserts
A new international report makes for bleak reading on the state of the world's soils. It predicts that land degradation will displace up to 700 million people worldwide by mid-century.
The Future, This Week 16 March 2018
This week: fixing the web, the farmer wants a bot, and big gigs and solar in the rain in other news.
The Future, This Week 09 March 2018
This week: facing the fake food future, big data big brother, and space junk and cloning voices in other news.