气候变化与资源紧缩

这个大趋势着重于气候变化的生态大环境下,对重要资源产生的压力正日渐增加。

到本世纪中叶,对食物和水的需求将使这些资源面临更大压力。

我们将需要多生产60%~100%的食物,50亿人将面临严重的缺水问题。

世界鱼类资源正走向崩溃——以目前的速度,到2050年,88%的鱼类资源将被过度捕捞。

在全球气候变化的大背景下,对地球资源的需求前所未有。

我们正在目睹肆意蔓延的森林大火和烟雾弥漫的城市。

冰川和岛屿正在消失。热带群岛越来越多地受到强烈的季风风暴的冲击。

气候变化不是预测的未来,而是我们所经历的新常态。

持续的干旱、不断上升的海平面和更加频繁的恶劣天气可能会使更多的地区无法居住,迫使数百万人背井离乡。

气候变化还加速了全球生物多样性危机,使100万物种面临灭绝的危险。

这个大趋势包含了“环保主义者悖论”:我们越是消耗资源和破坏生态系统,全球人类的平均幸福指数就越高。

但是,面对日益全球化的生态系统退化,这种不断增长的消费,我们还能维持多久呢?

到2050年,全球能源需求将较目前的使用量增长30%,技术和市场创新正在竞相释放可再生能源的潜力。

通过电池存储、太阳能和风能技术等创新,我们有可能重塑能源生产,从而彻底改变消费者获取能源的方式。

60多种稀有金属对可再生技术、电池、电动汽车和混合动力汽车、智能手机和平板电脑至关重要。

但是,日益增加的需求和这种材料的稀有性质可能严重限制新技术的继续生产。

企业是产生温室气体的主要来源,而它们无法再继续忽视经济和环境福利之间的平衡。

 “一切如常”的模式无法继续维持。

但是,由于资本主义依靠消耗自然环境来确保经济的持续增长,企业和政府如何才能应对这个时代的挑战呢?

References

Water

Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2019. Water Scarcity – one of the greatest challenges of our time. Available at: http://www.fao.org/fao-stories/article/en/c/1185405/

The United Nations World Water Development Report 2018, Nature-Based Solutions for Water, UNESCO. Available at: https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000261424

UN News, (March 19, 2018) UN spotlights rainwater recycling, artificial wetlands among ‘green’ solutions to global water crisis. Available at:
https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/03/1005332

Watts, J. (March 19, 2018).  Water Shortages Could affect 5bn people by 2050. The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/19/water-shortages-could-affect-5bn-people-by-2050-un-report-warns

World Economic Forum, 2019, Water scarcity is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/water-scarcity-one-of-the-greatest-challenges-of-our-time

WWAP (UNESCO World Water Assessment Program).  2019. The United Nations World Water Development Report 2019: Leaving No One Behind. Paris, UNESCO. Available at: https://en.unesco.org/themes/water-security/wwap/wwdr/2019

Food

Alexandratos, N. and Bruinsma, J. (2012).  World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Working paper no. 12-03 Rome, FAO. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/ap106e/ap106e.pdf

Colombo, B. et al. Food Matters, Is there enough food for the future? Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Environment Reports. Available at: http://www.environmentreports.com/enough-food-for-the-future/

Elferink, M. and Schierhorn, F. (April 7, 2016). Global Demand for Food is Rising. Can We Meet It? HBR. Available at: https://hbr.org/2016/04/global-demand-for-food-is-rising-can-we-meet-it

FAO, 2018, The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050, Rome. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/I8429EN/i8429en.pdf

High Level Expert Forum, (October 2009). How to Feed the World 2050, Global agriculture towards 2050. Office of the Director, Agricultural Development Economics Division Economic and Social Development Department, Rome, Italy. Available at: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agriculture.pdf

Ranganathan, J., Waite, R., Searchinger, T. and Hanson, C. (December 5, 2018). How to Sustainably Feed 10 Billion People by 2050, in 21 Charts.  World Resources Institute.  Available at: https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts

Valin, H. et al. (December 10, 2013). The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/agec.12089

WWAP (UNESCO World Water Assessment Program).  2019. The United Nations World Water Development Report 2019: Leaving No One Behind. Paris, UNESCO. Available at: https://en.unesco.org/themes/water-security/wwap/wwdr/2019

Fishing

Church, J. and Clark, P. (2013). Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf

FAO. 2018.  The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 – Meeting the sustainable development goals. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/I9540EN/i9540en.pdf

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., R. Cai, E.S. Poloczanska, P.G. Brewer, S. Sundby, K. Hilmi, V.J. Fabry, and S. Jung,. (2014). The Ocean. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1655-1731.

Kituyi, M. and Thomson, P. (July 2018). 90% of fish stocks are used up – fisheries subsidies must stop emptying the ocean. Global Risks Report 2020, World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/fish-stocks-are-used-up-fisheries-subsidies-must-stop/

Worm, B. (April 2016). Averting a global fisheries disaster. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Available at: https://www.pnas.org/content/113/18/4895

Climate change

Collins, M. and Knutti, R (lead authors). (2013). Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf

Wright, C. and Nyberg, D. (2015). Climate Change, Capitalism and Corporations: Processes of Creative Self-Destruction. Cambridge University Press.

Species extinction

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report Summary for Policy Makers. In Fifth Assessment Report. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf

IPCC. (2019). Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Available at: https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf

UN Report. (May 2019). Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating’. Available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/

Forced migration due to climate change

Collins, M. and Knutti, R (lead authors). (2013). Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf

IPCC. (2019). Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Available at: https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf

Laczko, F. and Aghazarm,C. (2009) Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence. International Organization for Migration. Geneva, Switzerland. Available at: https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/migration_and_environment.pdf

The World Bank, (March 2019). Groundswell: Preparing for internal climate migration. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2018/03/19/groundswell—preparing-for-internal-climate-migration

改变世界的根本力量是什么?

举足轻重的科技
日新月异的城市
精进不休的社会
日新月异的城市
日渐崛起的个人
重新洗牌的经济
气候变化与资源紧缩

Archive

The future of food

In 2018 we looked at the future of food from the soil it will grow in to the spectre of a global shortage in just 10 years. So much food for thought.

Soybean farms surrounded the Wawi Indigenous Territory in the Southeast Amazon. Rogério Assis/ Instituto Socioambiental, Author provided
How Brazil can beat the odds

Brazil has set itself a target of restoring almost 50,000 sq km of the Amazon rainforest by 2030. But it won't get there without changing its policies and how it engages with local people.

Processing...
Thank you! Your subscription has been confirmed. You'll hear from us soon.
ErrorHere