人口结构的变化
经过200多年的快速增长，世界人口将在本世纪末达到110亿的峰值。
人们生的孩子越来越少，寿命越来越长。
这是人口结构变化的大趋势——一种深刻的人口变化，将影响个人、家庭和社区。
65岁以上人口的比例将从2022年的10%增长到2050年的16%。
随着人口老龄化，将会有更少的工作人口来支持越来越多的退休人口。
今天，每一个老年人对应着四个处于工作年龄的人。到2050年，预计将只有两个工作年龄的人支持四个老年人。
大约40个国家——包括日本、意大利和波兰——已经在经历人口下降。
中国人口在经历了60年的增长后，于2022年开始收缩，这是一个重大转折点。
到2050年，至少还有88个国家将进入人口收缩。
然而，在世界某些地区，人口趋势正反其道而行之。到本世纪中叶，撒哈拉以南非洲的人口将增加近一倍，超过20亿，到2070年，该地区将超过亚洲，成为地球上人口最多的地区。印度、巴基斯坦和菲律宾等国家的人口也将继续增长。
到2050年，世界总人口的25%，以及40%的18岁以下人口将生活在非洲。
非洲大陆及其活跃的人口增长将带来新的贸易和发展机会，加速经济力量的转移。
对于全球其他地区来说，这种前所未有的老龄化将需要相当大的调整和应对。移民将成为大多数高收入国家人口增长的唯一推动力。
在产品和服务方面，特别是在卫生和住房，将有持续创新的空间。
如果各国要提高生产率并解决劳动力短缺问题，就必须为传统边缘化群体提供灵活就业机会，并使劳动力更具多样性和包容性，再培训和技能提升也至关重要。
如果我们想在21世纪蓬勃发展，了解并应对各地不同的人口压力将至关重要。
Bloom, D.E., Zucker, L.M. (2022). ‘Aging is the Real Population Bomb’, IMF Finance & Development. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker
Alvarez, P. (2022). ‘What does the global decline of the fertility rate look like?’, Ageing and Longevity, World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/global-decline-of-fertility-rates-visualised/
Our World in Data (2022). ‘Median Age, 1950-2100’. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/median-age?tab=chart&year=2020&time=1950..2100&country=OWID_WRL
World Population Review (2023). ‘Countries with Declining Population 2023’. Available at:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-declining-population
Selassie, A. (2021). ‘The African Century’, IMF Finance and Development. Available at:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/African-Century-Abebe-Selassie
United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. Available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2022_wpp_key-messages.pdf
United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022.Available at:
https://population.un.org/wpp/
UNICEF Data (2017). Generation 2030 Africa 2.0. Available at:
https://data.unicef.org/resources/generation-2030-africa-2-0/
French, H.W. (2022). ‘Megalopolis: how coastal west Africa will shape the coming century’, The Guardian 27/10/22. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/27/megalopolis-how-coastal-west-africa-will-shape-the-coming-century
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