重新洗牌的经济

随着亚洲成为全球最大的贸易区,世界经济将发生变化,这将推动一个庞大的富裕人群和一批新型企业的崛起。

中国和印度这两个国家就将占世界人口的35%和全球GDP的25%。

这个大趋势关注的是全球经济实力的转移。我们将看到全球经济的重组,预计到2030年,非经合组织经济体将占到GDP的57%。

七国集团(E7)的经济影响力将转移到七大新兴市场(G7)。到2040年,E7经济体将是G7经济体的两倍。

随着世界经济重心转向亚洲,印度和中国在全球产出中所占的份额将不断上升。然而,西方公民的个人购买力仍将高于中国和印度的消费者。

中国将需要获得更多的世界自然资源,并为其不断扩张的经济培育市场。在“一带一路”倡议下,中国将投资于130多个国家的经济发展和交通运输。

到2030年,全球中产阶级将有50亿人。这个富裕的大众群体将拥有巨大的购买力。这其中三分之二将居住在亚太地区。

财富向富人的转移将会加速。目前,世界上大约一半的财富掌握在1%的人口手中。到2030年,最富有的1%将拥有全世界三分之二的财富

全球化本身就产生了不平等的回报。不平等化加剧正在挑战人们对全球传统经济机构和协议的信任。更频繁的贸易战和日益抬头的保护主义将带来不稳定和不确定性。

个人、企业和政府将如何在这个个人不断壮大、经济迅速变化的时代重新平衡彼此的期望?

大型科技公司的崛起,带来了海量数据和全球影响力。 如今,各种各样的数字平台就如同对社会至关重要的基础设施,有着支配我们的经济和社会的权力。未来的权力平衡,将取决于立法者对这些公司征税和监管方式的彻底变革程度。

如此大规模的经济实力转移将从根本上改变个人和国家的繁荣——这些机会和重大风险将在世界舞台上上演。

References

Bughin, J. and Woetzel, W. (2019). Navigating a world of disruption. (online). McKinsey&Co. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/innovation-and-growth/navigating-a-world-of-disruption

CSIRO, (2019). Australian National Outlook 2019. Available at: https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/ANO

European Commission. (2018). Economic Power Shifts, in The EC Megatrend Hub. Available here: https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/foresight/topic/expanding-influence-east-south/power-shifts_en

Gaub. F. (2019). Global Trends to 2030, Challenges and Choices for Europe. (online) European Strategy and Policy Analysis System. Available at: https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/generated/document/en/ESPAS_Report2019.pdf

Guillemette, Y. and D. Turner (2018). The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060. OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 22, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b4f4e03e-en.

National Intelligence Council. (2017). Global Trends, Paradox of Progress,  (online). Available at: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/nic/GT-Full-Report.pdf

OECD (2019). Economic Outlook, Volume 2019, Issue 2, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available at: https://doi-org.ezproxy1.library.usyd.edu.au/10.1787/9b89401b-en.

OECD (2012). Medium and Long-Term Scenarios for Global Growth and Imbalances. OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2012/1. Chapter 4. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/berlin/50405107.pdf

OECD (2018). The Belt and Road Initiative in the global trade, investment and finance landscape. In OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2018, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf

Oxford Martin School. (2014). Now for the Long Term. (online) The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations. University of Oxford. Available at: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/commission/Oxford_Martin_Now_for_the_Long_Term.pdf

Weller, Chris. (2017) 4 Mega-trends that could change the world by 2030. (online) World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/08/4-mega-trends-that-could-change-the-world-by-2030

United Nations, (2018). 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. (online) The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. Available at: https://population.un.org/wup/

Velkavrh, A., Asquith, M., Ribeiro, T., and Lung, T., (2015) Global megatrends assessment, in EEA Technical report No11/2015. (online) European Environment Agency. Available at: https://rea.apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/documentos/Global%20megatrends%20assessment%20-%20extended%20background%20analysis.pdf

Gaub. F. (2019). Global Trends to 2030, Challenges and Choices for Europe. (online) European Strategy and Policy Analysis System. Available at: https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/generated/document/en/ESPAS_Report2019.pdf

改变世界的根本力量是什么?

举足轻重的科技
日新月异的城市
精进不休的社会
日新月异的城市
日渐崛起的个人
重新洗牌的经济
气候变化与资源紧缩

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