重新洗牌的经济
随着亚洲成为全球最大的贸易区,世界经济将发生变化,这将推动一个庞大的富裕人群和一批新型企业的崛起。

中国和印度这两个国家就将占世界人口的35%和全球GDP的25%。
这个大趋势关注的是全球经济实力的转移。我们将看到全球经济的重组,预计到2030年,非经合组织经济体将占到GDP的57%。
七国集团(E7)的经济影响力将转移到七大新兴市场(G7)。到2040年,E7经济体将是G7经济体的两倍。
随着世界经济重心转向亚洲,印度和中国在全球产出中所占的份额将不断上升。然而,西方公民的个人购买力仍将高于中国和印度的消费者。
中国将需要获得更多的世界自然资源,并为其不断扩张的经济培育市场。在“一带一路”倡议下,中国将投资于130多个国家的经济发展和交通运输。
到2030年,全球中产阶级将有50亿人。这个富裕的大众群体将拥有巨大的购买力。这其中三分之二将居住在亚太地区。
财富向富人的转移将会加速。目前,世界上大约一半的财富掌握在1%的人口手中。到2030年,最富有的1%将拥有全世界三分之二的财富
全球化本身就产生了不平等的回报。不平等化加剧正在挑战人们对全球传统经济机构和协议的信任。更频繁的贸易战和日益抬头的保护主义将带来不稳定和不确定性。
个人、企业和政府将如何在这个个人不断壮大、经济迅速变化的时代重新平衡彼此的期望?
大型科技公司的崛起,带来了海量数据和全球影响力。 如今,各种各样的数字平台就如同对社会至关重要的基础设施,有着支配我们的经济和社会的权力。未来的权力平衡,将取决于立法者对这些公司征税和监管方式的彻底变革程度。
如此大规模的经济实力转移将从根本上改变个人和国家的繁荣——这些机会和重大风险将在世界舞台上上演。
References
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CSIRO, (2019). Australian National Outlook 2019. Available at: https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/ANO
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Gaub. F. (2019). Global Trends to 2030, Challenges and Choices for Europe. (online) European Strategy and Policy Analysis System. Available at: https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/generated/document/en/ESPAS_Report2019.pdf
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OECD (2018). The Belt and Road Initiative in the global trade, investment and finance landscape. In OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2018, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf
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Gaub. F. (2019). Global Trends to 2030, Challenges and Choices for Europe. (online) European Strategy and Policy Analysis System. Available at: https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/generated/document/en/ESPAS_Report2019.pdf
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