The climate and resource security megatrend captures the increasing pressure on critical resources within the mega-ecological narrative of climate change.
By mid-century demand for food and water will place these resources under stress. We will need to produce 60 – 100% percent more food and 5 billion people could be facing a critical lack of water. The world’s fish stock is being pushed towards collapse – at the current rate, 88% of stock will be over-fished by 2050. This unprecedented demand on the earth’s resources is unfolding against the bigger story of global climate change.
We are witnessing unstoppable bushfires and smoke-filled cities. Glaciers and islands are disappearing. Tropical archipelagos are increasingly lashed by intense monsoon storms. Climate change is not a prediction, it is our new normal. Prolonged droughts, rising sea levels and more frequent severe weather events threaten to make more areas unliveable displacing many millions of people from their home. Climate disruption is also accelerating global biodiversity crisis, threatening 1 million species to the brink of extinction.
This megatrend contains the “environmentalist’s paradox”: the more we deplete our resources and degrade our ecosystems, the more average human well-being improves globally. But how long can we sustain rising consumption in the face of ecosystem degradation that is also increasingly global?
By 2050 demand for energy will increase by 30% above current global use. Technological and market innovations are racing to unlock the promise of renewable energy. With innovations like battery storage, solar and wind technologies, we are creating the potential to rethink energy production and revolutionise how consumers access energy. More than 60 rare metals are critical for renewable technologies, batteries, electric and hybrid cars, smartphones and tablets. However, increasing demand and the rare nature of such materials could severely limit the continued production of new technologies.
Corporations are principal agents in the production of greenhouse gas and can no longer ignore the trade-off between economic and environmental well-being. It is no longer possible to continue with business as usual, but as capitalism depends on consuming the natural environment to ensure continual economic growth, how can business and governments respond to the challenge of our time?
References
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2019. Water Scarcity – one of the greatest challenges of our time. Available at: http://www.fao.org/fao-stories/article/en/c/1185405/
The United Nations World Water Development Report 2018, Nature-Based Solutions for Water, UNESCO. Available at: https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000261424
UN
News, (March 19, 2018) UN spotlights rainwater recycling, artificial wetlands
among ‘green’ solutions to global water crisis. Available at:
https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/03/1005332
Watts, J. (March 19, 2018). Water Shortages Could affect 5bn people by 2050. The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/19/water-shortages-could-affect-5bn-people-by-2050-un-report-warns
World Economic Forum, 2019, Water scarcity is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/water-scarcity-one-of-the-greatest-challenges-of-our-time
WWAP (UNESCO World Water Assessment Program). 2019. The United Nations World Water Development Report 2019: Leaving No One Behind. Paris, UNESCO. Available at: https://en.unesco.org/themes/water-security/wwap/wwdr/2019
Alexandratos, N. and Bruinsma, J. (2012). World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Working paper no. 12-03 Rome, FAO. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/ap106e/ap106e.pdf
Colombo, B. et al. Food Matters, Is there enough food for the future? Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Environment Reports. Available at: http://www.environmentreports.com/enough-food-for-the-future/
Elferink, M. and Schierhorn, F. (April 7, 2016). Global Demand for Food is Rising. Can We Meet It? HBR. Available at: https://hbr.org/2016/04/global-demand-for-food-is-rising-can-we-meet-it
FAO, 2018, The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050, Rome. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/I8429EN/i8429en.pdf
High Level Expert Forum, (October 2009). How to Feed the World 2050, Global agriculture towards 2050. Office of the Director, Agricultural Development Economics Division Economic and Social Development Department, Rome, Italy. Available at: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agriculture.pdf
Ranganathan, J., Waite, R., Searchinger, T. and Hanson, C. (December 5, 2018). How to Sustainably Feed 10 Billion People by 2050, in 21 Charts. World Resources Institute. Available at: https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/12/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts
Valin, H. et al. (December 10, 2013). The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/agec.12089
WWAP (UNESCO World Water Assessment Program). 2019. The United Nations World Water Development Report 2019: Leaving No One Behind. Paris, UNESCO. Available at: https://en.unesco.org/themes/water-security/wwap/wwdr/2019
Church, J. and Clark, P. (2013). Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf
FAO. 2018. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 – Meeting the sustainable development goals. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/I9540EN/i9540en.pdf
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., R. Cai, E.S. Poloczanska, P.G. Brewer, S. Sundby, K. Hilmi, V.J. Fabry, and S. Jung,. (2014). The Ocean. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1655-1731.
Kituyi, M. and Thomson, P. (July 2018). 90% of fish stocks are used up – fisheries subsidies must stop emptying the ocean. Global Risks Report 2020, World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/fish-stocks-are-used-up-fisheries-subsidies-must-stop/
Worm, B. (April 2016). Averting a global fisheries disaster. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Available at: https://www.pnas.org/content/113/18/4895
BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition. Available at: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2019.pdf
Collins, M. and Knutti, R (lead authors). (2013). Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf
Wright, C. and Nyberg, D. (2015). Climate Change, Capitalism and Corporations: Processes of Creative Self-Destruction. Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report Summary for Policy Makers. In Fifth Assessment Report. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
IPCC. (2019). Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Available at: https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf
UN Report. (May 2019). Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating’. Available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/
Collins, M. and Knutti, R (lead authors). (2013). Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf
IPCC. (2019). Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Available at: https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf
Laczko, F. and Aghazarm,C. (2009) Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence. International Organization for Migration. Geneva, Switzerland. Available at: https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/migration_and_environment.pdf
The World Bank, (March 2019). Groundswell: Preparing for internal climate migration. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2018/03/19/groundswell—preparing-for-internal-climate-migration
Megatrends watch
Resource security for renewable energy? No worries!
Is it possible to power the world’s energy needs and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
The kids won’t be OK
Today’s children will be forced to endure the climate change consequences created during their parents’ lifetimes.
COVID-19 driving deforestation in Asia and South America
Deforestation is having a significant impact on global biodiversity.
Declining fish poo changing ocean carbon balance
While commercial fishing rates have fallen, the decline in fish stocks over time is leading to unintended consequences.
Are temperatures rising in a nonlinear way?
Recent catastrophes could indicate the climate system has crossed a dangerous threshold.
Town closer to North Pole than equator hits 49.6ºC
What’s the verdict as unusual weather patterns become more common?
Cities are on the frontline of climate change – prepare or perish
More than 800 million people could be affected by coastal flooding, how are cities adapting?
A tale of two megacities
Cities with affluent residents – and corresponding high consumption lifestyles, account for the largest carbon footprints.
What are megatrends and how they are shaping the future of business?
Archive
