COVID-19 and its impact on business

The pandemic is a transformative global event, requiring fresh thinking.

We are barely grasping the nature of the global calamity that is the coronavirus (COVID-19). With everything that’s happening, it is hard to understand what this means for the future of business.

We will have regular updates including new insights (short and sharp expert-driven pieces that link to further in-depth resources), additional data and research, media commentary, timely, relevant and fresh perspectives on how COVID-19 might impact the economy, businesses, industries, governments and society. And of course our regular podcast update – Corona Business Insights.

Things are constantly changing and implications will only become clear over time. Our COVID Business Impact Dashboard will be a “living initiative” which will constantly update and adapt its insights and resources.

Listen to the latest: Corona Business Insights, regular podcast updates on the business impact of COVID-19

Click on a topic to skip straight to the insights.

Business

Business leaders are grappling with the realities of having the premises shut, relocating staff to their homes, experimenting with new ways of working, and the new realities of having to lay off vast numbers of staff. How can businesses keep afloat and how will it change the business landscape post crisis? Important questions emerge:

Will emerging digital work practices last beyond the short-term crisis? Will businesses learn from this pandemic and be more resilient for future crises? What will the role of open-plan offices in a world that has experienced extreme social distancing? What is the role of HR in a virtualised organisation where workers are isolated in their homes?


73% of Australian businesses accessed support measures

Source: ABS

81%

Percentage of Australians who think employees should be able to work from home

Source: The Guardian

3hours

Roughly how much longer people are working each day during COVID-19

Source: Business Facilities

43%

Full-time US workers who would like to work remotely more often after COVID-19

Source: Statista


Recent insights

Safeguarding mental health while working from home

Working from home has become so routine during COVID-19 the arrangement even enjoys its own texting friendly abbreviation.

This new way of working is continuing to evolve and it is imperative employee mental health remains at the forefront of the agenda.

Our research – with collaborators from the Black Dog Institute and the Charles Perkins Centre – highlights the how the increased use of technology can both positively and negatively impact employee mental health.

While technology can streamline many aspects of work, its continued use with few breaks can be emotionally and cognitively draining, especially when the boundaries between work and home life are blurred.

Our research highlights that in order to safeguard mental health while working from home, employees need to be very intentional about setting boundaries around where, when and how they work at home. Pre-pandemic, for a lot of us it was easier to leave work behind once we left the office. But when working from home, that clock-off button is a lot harder to push, especially without enforcing clean boundaries. This could include turning off email notifications on your phone at nighttime or agreeing with your team manager to have a ‘smartphone free’ night of the week.

Also apparent from our research is the fact that there are clear directions for educational institutions in preparing workers for the future. Technology will only continue to become an increasingly integral part of work. Equipping current and prospective employees with a future-proof skill set, including how to better collaborate, innovate, self-direct and problem-solve, will provide them with the tools to proactively navigate technology challenges and help prevent poor mental health.

Working from home is nothing new to mothers

As Australians begin to return to workplaces many more men will understand the delights – and pitfalls – of working from home.

The stigma previously associated with men working flexibly may also be reduced or even eradicated.

WFH and the challenges that can come with it – managing workloads, balancing work and care responsibilities – has been the familiar terrain of mothers long before the coronavirus pandemic.

About one in five women with children 12 years or younger, work from home.

Mothers who do some of their WFH report strong benefits such as better accommodating family responsibilities. Moreover, some mothers who may not otherwise have done so, can stay in work and progress their careers, which is advantageous to both them and the economy.

Managers have often noted such workers are productive, committed and don’t “lose time” socialising with colleagues in the workplace.

But WFH also comes with pitfalls. Some report a lack of down-time when all-time is potentially work time.

Many feel “grateful” for the ‘privilege’ of working flexibly, and this comes with pressure to go above and beyond. Consequently, mothers often put in many hours of unpaid work, checking emails at night and during days off. For home-based employees these pressures can lead to stress, anxiety and exhaustion.

In this time of COVID-19 WFH, managers and supervisors play a critical role in setting reasonable workloads, communicating these clearly to staff, encouraging staff to carve out down time (when they don’t “log on”) and leading by example. This will protect their employees’ wellbeing as well as their loyalty and productivity.

Managers and supervisors, now with first-hand experience of WFH, will better understand the needs of people with family responsibilities and, let’s hope, will be more willing and able to support their employees to work flexibly.

Moving with the times

Before COVID-19 the major 21st century challenges facing leaders were the ‘gifts’ of the fourth industrial revolution – big data, AI, robotics.

But the true instigator of change in the first half of the 2020 has been adversity and human hardship.

In mere months, collaborative remote working was the new normal, cinema goers became Netflix subscribers, online lessons and tele-health moved from a technological possibility to a necessity, contactless payment were no longer seen as a convenience but a ticket to play.

Transformation is essential but can lead to the mistaken urge to jettison ‘yesterdays’ people: If COVID-19 has taught us anything, it’s that now is the time for organisations to take more care of their people.

Here are three thought starters to harnessing people’s natural adaptiveness while keeping them inspired and motivated:

1. Harness the brand for continuity and buy-in

Successful brands – Apple, Louis Vuitton, PayPal – provide stories that bring people together to achieve what they can’t alone. Speaking to a greater purpose can galvanise people towards a common goal during difficult times – especially if it comes from the organisation’s DNA.

2. Find and connect your helpful hybrids and equip them to lead

Change champions exist at all levels in an organisation: They share the trait of being ‘helpful hybrids’ with established and trusted relationship networks while exploring new ways of working.

3. Build momentum from the ground up through micro-behaviours and perspectives

Start the change process in ‘small’ ways but with the purposeful aim of breaking old habits, opening the door to new ways of thinking and behaving. At Amazon Jeff Bezos’ rule of no PowerPoint meetings drove new engagement and ideas.

We are psychologically wired to focus on the negatives before thinking how we can break down the problem into manageable bites. Shift your mindset. Make the most of what you already have, connect it in new ways, and make little changes to take the next step. Most of all, take care of your people and they will take care of your organisation.

What we’re reading

Who wins and loses when workers stay home? (Guardian, 06/07/20)

Five behaviours that indicate productivity to managers (Forbes, 07/07/20)

The pandemic has boosted freelance work (CNBC, 06/07/20)

What the Dutch can teach the world about remote work (BBC, 24/06/20)

Companies are enforcing their own contact tracing to track employees (Wired UK, 22/06/20)

How to rebuild a business after the coronavirus lockdown (Wired UK, 22/06/20)

COVID-19 could accelerate the robot takeover (MIT Tech Review, 17/06/20)

How companies are preparing for a return to the office (NYT, 07/06/20)

The four-day workweek is coming because of COVID-19 (Inverse, 14/06/20)

As Businesses Reopen, Some Workers Fear Returning (Wired, 05/06/20)

Your workforce will be split in two (Wired UK, 04/06/20)

How to monitor your employees while respecting their privacy (HBR, 28/05/20)

The CEO’s guide to safely reopening the workplace (MIT Tech Review, 28/05/20)

Facebook is for remote work to reduce wages (Bloomberg, 29/05/20)

Google gives workers a chunk of cash to build a home office (Digital Trends, 27/05/20)

Office work will never be the same (Recode, 21/05/20)

How to prepare your virtual teams for the long haul (HBR, 22/05/20)

Once you go remote, you should never go back (Forbes, 22/05/20)

Are traditional offices still required? (WSJ, 16/05/20)

Westpac mulls permanent remote staff (AFR, 12/05/20)

The era of offshoring U.S. jobs is over (NYT, 11/05/20)

The pandemic has exposed the fallacy of the “ideal worker” (HBR, 11/05/20)

Coronavirus grounded business travel. Will it ever come back? (Wired, 04/05/20)

PwC is building coronavirus contact tracing software for companies (CNBC, 06/05/20)

COVID-19 will fundamentally shift office culture in the future (Forbes, 05/05/20)

The cubicle is back due to the coronavirus (Wired, 30/04/20)

A call for shorter working weeks (The Atlantic, 30/04/20)

Remote work is easy. Remote hiring is hard.​ (Protocol, 29/04/20)

10-step action plan for taking your company remote (Recruitment.com, 24/04/20)

COVID-19 and the welcome collapse of “professionalism” (Quartz, 21/04/20)

All the things COVID-19 will change forever (Fastcompany, 20/04/20)

Who will be the winners in a post-pandemic economy? (World Economic Forum, 20/04/20)

Remote work over the centuries: The Hudson’s Bay Company (Talking About Organizations, 14/04/20)

Working from home might have benefits for women (ABC, 09/04/20)

Tech start-ups struggle to keep afloat (Geekwire, 29/03/20)

Small Businesses and the COVID-19 crisis (HBR, 27/03/20)

Demand for online work tools surges (The Verge, 26/03/20)

What will the ‘next normal’ for business look like? (McKinsey, 25/03/20)

COVID-19: the cost to business (NYT, 15/03/20)

Economy

Predictions about the impact of the crisis on the global economy vary wildly, but they all agree that the end result will not be positive. We are asking questions about the impact in its broadest sense:

How deep will the economic impact go? How will growth be affected locally and globally? Will we see heightened global disparity in countries’ economic performance of the coming years, depending on which pandemic response strategy they chose? Will social distancing put an end to the cash economy and spur digital alternatives? How will global supply chains be reshaped as a result of the crisis? What are the implications for capitalism itself?


GDP forecast, % year on year

(forecasts are based on no “second wave” of the pandemic)

Source: OECD

COVID-19 impact on stock market

Source: Google Finance

Predicted unemployment in Australia

Source: Grattan Institute


Recent insights

Economic crisis and gender equality in Asia

Economic crises exacerbate pre-existing inequalities: COVID-19 will damage women’s employment and economic security more than men’s.

Women’s participation in formal employment, political representation, health outcomes and educational achievement declines during and after periods of economic crisis creating a long-term negative impact on women’s human capital formation and economic security.

The social distancing requirements of this pandemic have seen highly feminised sectors, including retail trade, accommodation, food services, tourism and export-oriented manufacturing hit hardest. Hundreds of millions of women employed in these sectors were laid off in the first month of the crisis and more will follow.

The Asian Development Bank estimates small and medium-sized enterprises account for 96 per cent of all businesses in Asia. A recent economic analysis suggests poverty could increase in Asia for the first time since 1990.

But an alternative outcome is possible. Prior to COVID-19, a global consensus for gender equality and women’s economic empowerment was gaining significant momentum. Women’s participation in the economy has been framed as a key to global growth by leading international agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF.

The business case for gender equality remains as robust as ever and, if handled appropriately, the pandemic presents a number of opportunities to ‘build back better’ and improve women’s equality in the workplace.

Gender equality post-COVID-19 will require government and business to include women as leaders and participants in recovery planning. Governments must also fund social care and employers must support workplace practices that do not discriminate against workers with care responsibilities. The IMF expects global growth will rebound once the crisis is contained, but will women share equally the benefits of the recovery?

China helped Australia’s GFC recovery and it will again, but for different reasons

China’s economy is poised for a quick rebound. In March, factories reopened and in April, schools started reopening in China’s biggest cities. Daily coal consumption has returned to 90 per cent of pre-COVID-19 levels.

The Australia–China economic partnership was crucial for Australia’s GFC recovery. China became Australia’s largest two-way trading partner in 2007, accounting for 13 per cent (AU$58 billion) of total trade.

Ten years later, in 2018–19, two-way trade with China surged past AU$230 billion, well over double the volume of trade with Australia’s second-ranked trading partner, Japan (AU$88.5 billion). Nearly 40 per cent of Australian exports now go to China and one fifth of imports are from China.

The China trade effect that was concentrated on the resources industry after the GFC is now spread much more widely across Australia’s rural and urban industries.

Compared to 10 years ago, trade with China is more diversified and linked with a larger number of small and medium businesses in Australia. During the GFC, China was Australia’s top market for minerals, fuels and agricultural produce — products in high demand in China’s state-owned sector. Today, China’s middle-class consumers have become Australia’s top market for high-quality consumer products such as food, beauty and health products, as well as services like healthcare, tourism and education.

Australian small and medium exporters are targeting China’s expanding middle class. According to Alibaba, during the 24-hour Singles’ Day sale on 11 November 2019 Australia was the fourth-ranked country selling into China — behind Japan, the United States and South Korea but ahead of Germany.

Australia is facing a bigger crisis now than it did post-GFC, and it is also more closely interconnected with China. This makes the Australia–China economic partnership even more important than it was post-GFC.

What we’re reading

Economy to recover strongly, but wages and jobs will not (SMH, 06/07/20)

Australia won’t meet migration forecasts for a decade (Guardian, 07/07/20)

As China lifts migration rules, growth will follow (Bloomberg, 01/07/20)

Without safe migration, economic recovery will be limited (Al Jazeera, 14/06/20)

The economy is a mess. So why isn’t the stock market? (FiveThirtyEight, 19/06/20)

IMF says decline in global growth worse than forecast (BBC, 24/06/20)

We can protect the economy from pandemics. Why didn’t we? (Wired, 16/06/20)

How one health system is transforming in response to COVID-19 (HBR, 11/06/20)

World economy crash sparks warning on early lifeline withdrawal (Bloomberg, 10/06/20)

Surging renewables, COVID-19 pile more pressure on coal (SMH, 08/06/20)

The pandemic is transforming the rental economy (Wired, 08/06/20)

Is Coronavirus pushing us towards a cashless society? (Euronews, 03/06/20)

Australia is in a recession – but worse is yet to come (Guardian, 03/06/20)

How mobility could play out after coronavirus (Axios, 30/05/20)

the new credit market system could be better for businesses (WSJ, 27/05/20)

The stock market and consumer sentiment are telling different stories (WSJ, 27/05/20)

The future of work could look like the past (NYT, 24/05/20)

Is Prince Charles using the pandemic to take on capitalism? (Vanity Fair, 22/05/20)

Will COVID-19 have a lasting impact on globalisation? (HBR, 20/05/20)

Why economic forecasting is so difficult in the pandemic (HBR, 18/05/20)

Coronavirus sent shockwaves through the Australian job market (ABC, 14/05/20)

The temporary pandemic layoffs that could become permanent (Axios, 12/05/20)

The coronavirus recovery may take months (Axios, 13/05/20)

EU faces recession of historic proportions (NPR, 06/05/20)

The U.S. is not headed toward a new great depression (HBR, 01/05/20)

Economists on coronavirus and capitalism (Guardian, 06/05/20)

A visual guide to the economic impact of COVID-19 (BBC, 30/04/20)

Why a ‘Greater Depression’ for the 2020s is inevitable (Guardian, 29/04/20)

How coronavirus will upend the economy over the next year (Wired, 28/04/20)

Get ready for the ‘Novel Economy’ (ZDNet, 20/04/20)

Shutdown: estimating the COVID-19 employment shock (Grattan Institute, 19/04/20)

Who’ll pay for global recession? (Economic Times, 16/04/20)

Virus will leave an economic impact for decades (SMH, 07/04/20)

The great deflation threat (Washington Post, 06/04/20)

Paul Krugman says we are ignoring a fiscal time bomb (Business Insider, 02/04/20)

What we get wrong about the toilet paper shortage (Medium, 03/04/20)

Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time (NYT, 01/04/20)

Four futures of how economic systems might change (The Conversation, 30/03/20)

Inflation might increase after the crisis (Barron’s, 27/03/20)

Australia says good bye to 30 years of growth (NYT, 27/03/20)

What is the shape of the COVID-19 shock (HBR, 27/03/20)

McKinsey’s continuous analysis of the economic impact (McKinsey, 25/03/20)

A recession will be unavoidable (NYT, 21/03/20)

The fragility of just-in-time supply chains (The Atlantic, 26/03/20)

Bitcoin is not a safe haven investment (MIT Tech Review, 19/03/20)

COVID-19 is a chance to do capitalism differently (Guardian, 19/03/20)

Industry

With businesses in many sectors struggling and closing their doors as a result of the COVID-19 response and other industries seeing surges in demand and their services expand, we ask questions about the lasting future implications across industries:

As the travel industry is one of the earliest and hardest hit, will tourism and business travel undergo lasting transformations? Will large technology companies (big tech) benefit from the crisis and emerge stronger than before? With the growth in online streaming, what are the implications for the film and movie sectors? What is the impact on sports, worldwide and locally; will Australia be able to sustain its indigenous sports codes?


Chinese industrial production down 13.5% in the first two months of 2020 but has rebounded in Q2

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

The change in value of orders for US manufacturers compared to previous months and the same month in 2019.

Source: US Census Bureau via Statistia

52%

Decrease in commercial flights around the world, last week of May year-on-year

Source: Flightradar24

17.7%

Drop in Australian retail turnover from March 2020 to April 2020.

Source: ABS (revised 4 June 2020)


Recent insights

Virtual work experience – a positive pandemic outcome

While COVID-19 has reshaped Australian higher education with online course delivery, Zoom consultations and AI exams, it hasn’t changed the critical role of higher education in preparing students for the job market.

Work-integrated Learning (WIL) programs such as placements, study tours, industry practicums and industry and community-based projects are considered instrumental for equipping graduates with the required employability skills to function effectively in the working environment. However, travel bans and social distancing rules during this pandemic period have made it impossible for students to engage with industry partners and mentors in person. Most WIL programs have been cancelled.

However virtual WIL programs are becoming the ‘new norm’. We partner with Make a Difference Travel in the Philippines to consider their online WIL program focusing on social entrepreneurship and sustainability. Prior to COVID-19 the program was delivered in the field: the team has promptly developed e-learning resources and online mentorship in response to the global crisis. The experiential online learning includes authentic video content that introduces social enterprise, sustainability and design thinking in the Philippines. It allows students to interact with entrepreneurs and to explore solutions to business challenges. The guided online learning aims to provoke students to inquire, reflect and pursue further study in the area.

While its effectiveness is yet to be studied, the experience inspires us to reconsider WIL curriculums in higher education. Perhaps virtual international WIL is an alternative program, offering employability skills development that is at a lower running cost, easier for risk management, and with fewer restriction on the number of participants, geographical locations and time?

The future of education is co-opetition

University education is in crisis. While COVID-19 has dramatically accelerated the delivery of online lessons, in doing so it has raised questions about the primacy of campus-based learning.

Both deliveries have to justify the extraordinary amount of money that students are paying. Scott Galloway, amongst others, has brilliantly led discussions on what the future of education looks like in terms of universities and teaching faculties.

Let me nail my colours to the mast and declare that campuses are here to stay – but they will be altered institutions.

Fundamentally there are three types of courses, and the teaching method should be determined by the type of course:

Firstly there are courses that can be taught 100 percent online: where the teacher is imparting enduring skills that don’t change over time. What my teacher in Math 101 was teaching 10 years ago is pretty much what he is teaching now.  Ditto for microeconomics. Insendi has some brilliant courses in these and other subjects.

The second course category are those requiring constant interaction between students and teachers, and among students themselves. 100 percent offline is required. Knowledge is co-created through discussion and collaboration. For example, it’s difficult to teach culture and leadership fully online: leadership is more than theory, it’s observing amazing people and appreciating nuances in how they think and behave. 

Thirdly there is the blended classroom: Courses such as Strategy, Supply Chain Management and International Business are examples of courses that can accommodate both online and in-person teaching methods. Such courses are composed of different sorts of knowledge that require a mixed teaching pedagogy.

Universities need to focus on those subjects that can mix online and off-line while leveraging some great online resources created by top notch scholars. I see a future of collaboration across universities for the creation of some fundamental, shareable material combined with competition around the individual strengths of particular scholars.

As public transport operators fight for survival, changes are needed to withstand future shocks

The public transport sector is hurting. After a summer of bushfires, travel bans and now COVID-19, the commercial/charter market has seen its revenue streams vanish. Many operators have stood down workers and deregistered their buses.

Contracted operators have incurred greater costs and those with large patronage incentives are looking to invoke ‘force majeure’ clauses as passenger numbers plummet. Around the world, services are being cut and governments have stepped in to underwrite services—as has occurred in the aviation sector.

Transport operators are fighting for survival as COVID-19 measures have brought enormous cost and revenue pressures. The result could be market consolidation and less competition in the industry.

The strategic and financial consequences of these external shocks call for urgent reform in the procurement and funding model of public transport to ensure its continued financial viability. New governance models should shift operators away from mere compliance with incentives for innovation and value creation.

Future contract design should ensure that transport services and assets will be more resilient in responding to other ‘black swan’ events.  In the area of sanitation technologies, the swift deployment of fogging, ultraviolet-C and robotics coupled with AI powered video analytics for crowd management should be under consideration now.

The return to work period will also necessitate the restructuring of services to better meet a changing demand landscape with biosecurity concerns at the forefront of service delivery.

The future of the film industry: With cinemas dark, all eyes are on streaming

The COVID-19 crises is set to have an enormous impact on the future of the film production and distribution sector, with the future of the night out at the movies in serious doubt. Billions of dollars are bound up in blockbuster film productions that have been completed but cannot now be released, as cinemas had to go dark due to COVID-19 lock downs globally.

For example, movies such as Top Gun: Maverick, Wonder Woman 1984, Marvel’s Black Widow, or Disney’s Mulan are all awaiting their first screenings. In the pre-Corona world movies would always see the light of day at the cinema first, with a well-spaced release window before they make their way to DVD or the TV screen. But these are not normal times. Streaming services all have seen between 20-30% jumps in viewership during the first few weeks of the crisis.

Thus, the pressure for film studios to unlock the millions or even billions of production capital tied up in already filmed but unreleased movies is now mounting. Yet, if studios were to decide to collapse the release window and put these blockbusters straight to the small screen, such as through their own streaming services, this might have lasting effects for the future of film distribution and the survival of the cinema experience.

What we’re reading

Emirates set to cut 9,000 jobs, citing pandemic (BBC, 10/07/20)

What if aviation doesn’t recover from COVID-19? (The Economist, 04/07/20)

Why COVID-19 is good for Bordeaux wines (The Economist, 27/06/20)

COVID-19 spurs collaboration in telehealth (MIT Tech Review, 29/06/20)

The promise and the peril of virtual healthcare (The New Yorker, 29/06/20)

Cirque du Soleil files for bankruptcy protection (Reuters, 30/06/20)

The end of tourism? (Guardian, 18/06/20)

Why the fashion industry faces an ‘existential crisis’ (BBC, 30/04/20)

The fashion industry: from resilience to reinvention and what’s next (Vogue, 25/05/20)

how fashion manufacturing will change after the coronavirus (Forbes, 13/05/20)

Coronavirus turmoil fuels the rise of AI-powered companies (Reuters, 17/06/20)

Surging renewables, COVID-19 pile more pressure on coal (SMH, 08/06/20)

Will the Pandemic Push Knowledge Work into the Gig Economy? (HBR, 01/06/20)

Coronavirus brings the age of drones closer (Axios, 30/05/20)

How coronavirus lockdowns have changed energy demand (World Economic Forum, 27/05/20)

The pandemic could change air travel forever (Recode, 27/05/20)

Wild ideas to bring back sports might say more about cities than leagues (NYT, 01/05/20)

Tokyo Olympics to be scrapped if not held next year (Al Jazeera, 21/05/20)

Coronavirus is accelerating the rise of alternative meat (Grist, 23/05/20)

The A380 could be the aircraft industry’s first pandemic victim (SMH, 21/05/20)

The pandemic will permanently change the auto industry (NYT, 13/05/20)

Can the restaurant industry be saved? (Rolling Stone, 11/05/20)

Air travel is going to be bad for a long time (The Atlantic, 11/05/20)

Selling products via live-streaming in China boosts recovery (MIT Tech Review, 06/05/20)

Looking to the future of air travel (HBR, 04/05/20)

The Coronavirus and the future of big tech (The New Yorker, 29/04/20)

The myth of Silicon Valley innocation (MIT Tech Review, 25/04/20)

Why coronavirus will accelerate the fourth Industrial Revolution (The Economist Intelligence Unit, 24/04/20)

Instacart hires 250,000 new workers (TechCrunch, 24/04/20)

The coronavirus is blowing up the media landscape (Vanity Fair, 21/04/20)

Gaming sales are up, but production is down (NYT, 21/04/20)

Australia’s manufacturing pivot in a post-coronavirus world (ABC, 19/04/20)

Travel Experts predict the future of travel (Forbes, 05/04/20)

Can Airbnb Survive Coronavirus? (Citylab, 03/04/20)

Bigtech will emerge stronger than ever (NYT, 23/03/20)

How the crisis might affect Facebook (Seeking Alpha, 05/04/20)

Tech predictions for a post-corona world (Forbes, 03/04/20)

Food shortages loom as work force goes missing (CNBC, 30/03/20)

Fintechs are likely to struggle (SMH, 28/03/20)

Bigtech will emerge stronger than ever (NYT, 23/03/20)

COVID-19 might have killed the Techlash (Wired, 20/03/20)

COVID-19 could lead to mass exodus in restaurants (The Daily Beast, 19/03/20)

Economic effects for the Sports industry (FiveThirtyEight, 16/03/20)

The aviation industry might never recover fully (The Economist, 15/03/20)

Society

Social distancing presents an unwanted and unprecedented societal experiment which might have long-lasting effects on how we organise public lives, what freedoms citizens will enjoy and how we will interact with each other in the future. We ask:

How will our collective life-styles adjust after months of social distancing? Will we experience a wave of loneliness and mental health problems or re-connect with each other in new and meaningful digital ways? Will COVID-19 lead to a greater acceptance of state surveillance and individual tracking, to effectively isolate infection cases? What are the implications for our global climate response as COVID-19 grabs public attention? Will we find new ways to curb misinformation as a result of the COVID-19 experience?


Pollution in Europe

(NO2 levels April 2019-2020)

Moving image showing differences in pollution across Europe in April 2019 and April 2020

Source: European Space Agency

Daily usage transport usage for Melbourne and Sydney since March 2020.

Source: Citymapper

99.7%

Drop in short-term travellers arriving in Australia

(June 2020 compared to June 2019)

Source: ABS

47%

Percentage of Australians who will consider using telehealth services after COVID-19

Source: ABS


Recent insights

Sustainable Development Goals more urgent than ever in a post-COVID world

COVID continues to create challenges for the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (hunger, decent work, inequalities). With the UN World Food Program predicting a quarter of a billion people could be plunged into acute hunger by December, it is more important than ever to dig in around the SDGs to help set the path for a stronger and better recovery.

A focus on the SDGs requires multi-sectoral partnerships, as no one sector, government, NFP or business, can do it alone due to the breadth and depth of the problems.  Businesses will play a key role within these multi-sectoral partnerships to provide a roadmap for a post-COVID world, due to their role in innovation, access to resources and as a source of employment.

Embracing the ‘never waste a crisis’ mantra the current calamity can be a catalyst for urgent SDG implementation.

Three key interrelated aspects require attention as the underlying driving forces for business to engage with the SDG agenda.

  1. Rethinking the role of business; the global pandemic has exposed the structural weaknesses of capitalism. The post-Covid world will require businesses to rethink their business model and offer sustainable solutions. Universities have a critically important role  role in shifting the business mindset towards sustainability.
  2. Technological readiness; the key technology trends accelerated during the COVID pandemic (online and distance learning, digital payments, remote working, tele-health, online entertainment, and resilient supply chain) relate to all the SDGs. In a post COVID world, businesses need to reimagine their approach to realise the unlimited potential of technology as an underlying force for all the SDGs.
  3. Social innovations: in a post-COVID resource constrained world, frugal innovations are critical not only for developing better and cheaper solutions at a rapid pace with limited resources, but also in keeping many businesses thriving.

Prior to COVID-19 there were concerns about achieving the SDGs by 2030. Their implementation is even more important in the world we are entering.

Living through touch in the age of Corona

I think a lot of people would agree that lockdown is one of the strangest collective experiences they’ve ever been through. And while individuals may have been able to take some positives from being at home, I’m sure it isn’t something that most people are eager to go through again.

I really love being able to get out and do my own thing, but all of this means that I am very unlikely to go out alone, and I don’t have people at my beck and call to guide me. Which means my lockdown is essentially ongoing, for a few months at least.

For a blind person, being unable to deal with the thought of germs would be debilitating.

So when non-disabled people feel their lives are pretty much back to normal and they’re doing everything they missed during lockdown, disabled people will most likely still be living with a lot of restrictions. Not by choice, but by necessity.

The pandemic, poverty and business

Developing countries now account for three quarters of new COVID-19 cases: the next phase in this pandemic is unfolding in the context of poverty.

Recent evidence from UNU-Wider suggests over a billion people are living in poverty and that the global poor could be losing $500 million per day due to the impact of the pandemic.  While countries such as Australia, have been successful in suppressing the virus, in other countries poverty is a barrier to containing the outbreak.  It is in everyone’s benefit to deal with structural issues such as poverty, arising from the pandemic. 

Countries including Australia are looking at a business-led economic recovery.  Coming out of the pandemic the initial reaction of companies will be to focus exclusively on the bottom-line. However in order for businesses to effectively lead this recovery and to differentiate themselves from others, they have to deal with the inherent issues arising from the pandemic, including poverty, job losses and other social issues such as gender inequality and hunger.

In 2019 The Business Round Table of CEOs redefined the purpose of business to stakeholder value rather than shareholder value.

Increasingly consumers, governments and civil society expect businesses to broaden their purpose.

Companies that proactively take on social issues such as poverty alleviation (at a profit) are more likely in the long run to both economically lead countries out of the pandemic, and to gain long-term advantages that have commercial benefits.

What we’re reading

How 2020 remapped your worlds (Citylab, 18/06/20)

Meet the secret algorithm that’s keeping students out of college (Wired, 10/07/20)

In Mexico City, the coronavirus is bringing back Aztec-era ‘floating gardens’ (Grist, 05/07/20)

Lockdown has put museums and galleries on the brink of collapse (Wired UK, 30/06/20)

After the coronavirus, two sharply divergent paths on climate (Yale Environment 360, 07/04/20)

French defy lockdown with Festival of Music (BBC, 22/06/20)

Opera has vanished. So have their dream jobs at the Met. (NYT, 19/06/20)

The pandemic will change the way our homes and offices are built (Wired UK, 16/06/20)

Londoners have become afraid of public transit (Citylab, 13/06/20)

In Japan and France, riding transit looks surprisingly safe (Citylab, 10/06/20)

We’re not all going to be working from home, nor should we (Guardian, 11/06/20)

This is online learning’s moment. For universities, it’s a total mess (Wired UK, 02/06/20)

How cities might change if we worked from home more (BBC, 01/06/20)

Why a four day working week could save us and the planet (Euronews, 01/06/20)

Reading the blueprints for our future after the virus (OneZero, 27/05/20)

It’s OK to find humour in some of this (NYT, 22/04/20)

How the pandemic could change our homes forever (The Conversation, 26/05/20)

For some people, returning to ‘normal’ might be scarier (The Conversation, 25/05/20)

The absence of sports feels like a loss for fans (Washington Post, 22/05/20)

The pandemic may forever change the world’s cities (Washington Post, 20/05/20)

The gym as you know it is a thing of the past (Vice, 14/05/20)

The lockdown live-streaming numbers are out, and they’re huge (The Verge, 13/05/20)

The 10 US cities best positioned to recover from coronavirus (Forbes, 12/05/20)

Our cities may never look the same again after the pandemic (CNN, 10/05/20)

Your daily commute won’t ever be the same (National Geographic, 11/05/20)

Urban design must adapt to coronavirus risks and fears (The Conversation, 07/05/20)

Sydney’s CBD could look very different after coronavirus (ABC, 05/05/20)

The coronavirus is rewriting our imaginations (The New Yorker, 01/05/20)

Record 50 million people internally displaced (Axios, 28/04/20)

How cities are reshaping streets for life after lockdown (Fastcompany, 27/04/20)

The pandemic might make buildings sick too (World Economic Forum, 26/04/20)

Many COVID-19 survivors will be left traumatised (MIT Tech Review, 22/04/20)

How is the coronavirus pandemic affecting climate change? (Wired, 21/04/20)

Time is meaningless now (Vice, 10/04/20)

COVID-19 might stall climate response (MIT Tech Review, 10/04/20)

Will the crisis have a lasting effect on pollution (National Geographic, 08/04/20)

Poachers Kill More Rhinos as Coronavirus Halts Tourism to Africa (NYT, 08/04/20)

Big Tech uses data to fight coronavirus (The Verge, 07/04/20)

Fighting the Coronavirus Infodemic (Wired, 30/03/20)

Life after Corona might not be that different (Huffington Post, 28/03/20)

New values and habits after the pandemic (Forbes, 28/03/20)

Our cities will have to change (Citylab, 27/03/20)

How the Pandemic Will Change Our Homes Forever (dwell, 26/03/20)

How COVID-19 might change the way we live (Mashable, 25/03/20)

COVID-19 lockdown hampers climate response (NYT, 19/03/20)

What COVID-19 tells us about failed responses to climate change (Scientific American, 17/03/20)

How to fight the infodemic with social media (MIT Tech Review, 17/03/20)

How COVID-19 will change how we shop, work, travel (Bloomberg, 14/03/20)

Government

While governments everywhere scramble to organise the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we are curious about what future changes our collective experiences with the response will bring to government systems and institutions:

What are the lasting impacts for employment and social security systems? Will there be renewed appetite for a serious consideration of Universal Basic Income? How will the pandemic shape public health systems? Will we see a surge in universal health? Will the experiences the global search for a vaccine lead to lasting changes in the status and funding of scientific research? How should policy responses be organised to govern a world that has learned from the COVID-19 crisis?


100+ countries have travel restrictions

Source: IATA, BBC

16.4%of GDP

The Australian Government’s total support for the economy as of 1 April

Source: The Treasury

$597billion

Potential loses for the city of Tokyo due to Olympics being postponed

Source: Statista


Recent insights

Principles for a policy response to COVID-19

In addition to the pressing public health crisis, Australia, like so much of the world, currently faces an unprecedented public policy challenge. Few of the specifics of the response to that challenge are yet clear and it would be foolhardy of anyone to pretend otherwise.

It is vital to engender clear-minded public debate as to what those principles should be and for us all to play a part in assisting decision-makers in these moments of deep stress.

Here we outline our own five core principles.

We put them forward both in the hope that they can guide policymakers now and that they can stimulate widespread discussion about the best way in which to take Australia forward.

  1. Fair and equal access to healthcare
  2. Shared economic sacrifice
  3. Enhancing social relationships
  4. Protecting democracy, rights and liberties
  5. Building a sustainable future

None of the principles above are designed to generate specific, individual policy responses. They are intended instead to act as a set of criteria by which such proposals for such responses can be judged and debate initiated.

Who is the government’s COVID-19 rent relief package really helping?

The Federal and State Governments’ rent moratorium for tenants is a compassionate gesture that appears to take the moral high ground but will leave landlords languishing in a quagmire when the COVID-19 crisis is over.

In reality the ‘rent relief packages’ are highly problematic, impractical and ignores the underlying ‘domino effect’: the various complex contractual arrangements landlords have with many other parties (such as banks, real-estate agents, insurance, other service providers and creditors). For example, the landlords who outright own their investment property and rely on rental income as the only source of income stream (e.g., self-managed superfund retirees) will be disadvantaged by the PM’s ‘sympathetic’ gesture.

There are also landlords who are physically incapable of working or who solely rely on rental income to feed their family. Further, many landlords finance their rental expenditure from their rental income. If this rental income is hijacked by the government’s inapt and unclear rules that are at best, open to the vaguest of interpretation – then it will come as no surprise that landlords (irrespective of commercial or residential) will be the losers juggling legally enforceable contractual agreements with the banks/insurance/creditors to meet financial obligations and forceful rent sacrifice.

To add insult to injury, landlords’ mortgage obligations have been seemingly watered down with creative terms and buzz-words such as “rent holiday”, “rent relief” or “rent freeze” – all of which assume zero penalties or costs when a landlord is forced to negotiate with a bank or insurer in a rent default situation. 

This ‘solution’ has created a mess for landlords and their tenants to sort out. Governments should refrain from making further responses which are ambiguous and unilaterally favour tenants to the detriment of landlords, without any reasonable and commensurate compensation scheme for landlords.

The government’s desperate measure to save tenants from financial distress appears to be a Robin Hood style attempt to steal from Landlord Peter to feed Tenant Paul.

Our corporate regulator’s response

Recent events surrounding the impact of COVID-19, and the resulting effects on business, have been creating great uncertainty, with an appreciable effect on global securities markets. In response, the Australian corporate regulator, the Australian Investments and Securities Commission (ASIC) has announced its COVID-19 regulatory priorities.

ASIC has a very wide set of responsibilities and says it will focus on those areas where there is “risk of significant consumer harm, serious breaches of the law, risks to market integrity, and time-critical matters”. Furthermore, ASIC will suspend or defer non time-critical matters including industry consultation, regulatory reports and reviews.

ASIC is to be congratulated for its pragmatic approach in these difficult times, which will allow businesses to focus on their own responses to the many challenges now confronting them. While criminal activity and misconduct must never be tolerated, now is the time to appropriately enable business to address the issues which affect their key stakeholders, including not only their shareholders, but also their customers, clients and employees, as well as the wider community.   

What we’re reading

Democracy will fail if we don’t think as citizens (FT, 06/07/20)

US hospitals function like businesses (USA Today, 05/07/20)

Grassroots activists must consider the personal costs of digital campaigns (The Conversation, 05/07/20)

What the data really says about women leaders and the pandemic (Wired, 01/07/20)

COVID is unmasking America’s collective action problem (Grist, 24/06/20)

Coronavirus threatens democracy, prominent figures warn (Politico, 25/06/20)

How Estonia used its digital state to beat back coronavirus (Wired UK, 19/06/20)

Europe rolls out contact tracing apps (NYT, 16/06/20)

Governments need to rethink the value of information (World Economic Forum, 17/06/20)

The pandemic claims new victims: prestigious medical journals (NYT, 14/06/20)

How one health system is transforming in response to COVID-19 (HBR, 11/06/20)

What Will It Take to Reopen the World to Travel? (NYT, 03/06/20)

How to prepare for the next pandemic (World Economic Forum, 02/06/20)

What restarting the economy means for climate change (NYT, 29/05/20)

Thousands of predicted COVID-19 deaths that never eventuated (SMH, 27/05/20)

Failing to reopen Purdue University would be a breach of duty (Washington Post, 25/05/20)

The end of the new world order (NYT, 23/05/20)

Immunity passports could help end lockdown (The Conversation, 21/05/20)

Mnuchin and Powell warn of economic scarring, and offer divergent solutions (NYT, 19/05/20)

How coronavirus is reshaping Europe in dangerous ways (Guardian, 14/05/20)

Coronavirus pandemic sees spike in demand for tiny homes (ABC, 16/05/20)

Elite cyborg universities will soon monopolise higher education (NY Magazine, 11/05/20)

How the world is tackling contact tracing (Canberra Times, 04/05/20)

Travel bubbles could be a modal for the future (CNN, 04/05/20)

Can antibody tests detect coronavirus mutations? (CNET, 07/05/20)

Digtial contact tracing doesn’t have to sacrifice privacy (Gizmodo, 30/04/20)

How crime changes during a lockdown (The Conversation, 02/04/20)

Prepare for less privacy (Axios, 29/04/20)

800,000 jobs go in three weeks amid Depression warning (SMH, 21/04/20)

Beware a new wave of populism post-coronavirus (Guardian, 19/04/20)

Could big tech be better at tracking COVID-19 than the government? (OneZero, 14/04/20)

Spanish Government Aims to Roll Out Basic Income ‘Soon’ (Bloomberg, 06/04/20)

The crisis aggravates gig work disputes (Wired, 30/03/20)

Key union proposes UBI in Australia (SMH, 26/03/20)

The US chooses mass unemployment, while Europe tries to preserve jobs (NYT, 26/03/20)

Andrew Yang’s UBI idea is popular again (Washington Post, 23/03/20)

The US uses marketing databases to track COVID cases (Forbes, 30/03/20)

The UK opts to secure jobs by subsidizing wages (BBC, 20/03/20)

A call for UBI in the US (Guardian, 20/03/20)

Tracking virus spread with smartphone app (NYT, 19/03/20)

Europe vs China: COVID-19 and political systems (NYT, 19/03/20)

Click on a topic to skip straight to the insights.

As COVID-19 sets out to change the world forever, join us in thinking about what’s to come

Part of the University of Sydney’s Business School’s strategy is to disseminate and generate new insights on the future of business. We come together using our expertise, available data, models and draw on imagination, new thinking and new understandings to respond.

If you want to contribute your own research or expert opinion on any matters of how COVID-19 impacts the world of business, please contact us or join the conversation.

sbi@sydney.edu.au
@SydBusInsights
Sydney Business Insights

You can also subscribe to our newsletter to get the latest insights delivered to your inbox.

University of Sydney resources

Processing...
Thank you! Your subscription has been confirmed. You'll hear from us soon.
ErrorHere